thursday
Review on 21st of April
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est CPI
EUR 5:00 AM est German ZEW Economic Sentiment
CAD 9:00 AM est BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Treasury Sec. Geithner Speaks
AUD 9:30 PM est CPI
EUR/USD sold off for most of the day and trended down well below the 50 day SMA continuing the steep downtrend that began last week as price made new monthly and new 10 day lows. Price is still obviously very bearish but may need a retracement at some point or a correction to the long side after the 500 pip drop beginning last week. Watch for possible strong support beginning at 1.2800 which represents a cluster of a fib target, weekly pivot, whole number, and bottom of a major trend channel best seen on a long term chart such as a day chart. IF price rallies, the CURRENT fib retracement for THIS week’s high/low are 1.2975 and 1.3000 for light resistance and the fib levels from last week’s high and Monday’s low are at 1.3080 and 1.3140 for stronger potential resistance.
GBP/USD also sold off below the 20 day MA heavily at the beginning of the trading session and for most of the morning with very little pullbacks until the afternoon consolidtion. Price has now triple topped and found strong resistance at the 1.5000 zone which may indicate that the longer term trend is now bearish, combined with late last week’s strong sell off. IF price is to continue to sell off, 1.4466 is the next longter term 62% retracement level and weekly mid-pivot then 1.4360 is a cluster of a fib target, retracement and weekly pivot for the next potential support zones. These levels are also identified by the trade zones on your charts. IF price needs to retrace and rally before continuing the sell off, watch the fib levels of approx. 1.4700-1.4720 and at 1.4783* for possible resistnace levels and a chance to reenter the downtrend if price does manage to bounce.
USD/JPY broked down below and out of a consolidating wedge pattern seen on a daily chart and long term trend line resulting in the big sell off even with the strong USD! Price sold off below the 20 day MA and is above the 50 day MA which may get tested on Tuesday or early this week. Watch for price to rally and retest the previous support level and possibly use it now as resistance. The most recent fib levels which may allow a chance to reenter the breakout and downtrend are 98.46, 98.71 and 98.96. Again, use capture lines as your entry if you choose to take these trades for the safest entry. IF price sells off, watch the 50 day MA which is in approx. the 97.20 area at the time of publishing. Also the net fib retracement of 96.60 is a long term fib retracement level for possible support if this level gets tested on Tuesday.
USD/CHF managed to rally up slightly on low volume and lower volatility but did make new monthly and new 10 day highs. USD had been in conflict with the CHF for most of the day resulting in the difficult trading conditions. Always try to use the strongest pair VS. the weakest for your best trading opportunities. IF price rallies, the next possible resistance is the fib target at 1.1769 and the fib target and monthly pivot of 1.1857.* IF price sells off, 1.1687 was last week’s high and may now be support if tested. Also use the first 3 buy zones on the chart for your most relevant fib levels for potential support.
USD/CAD exploded up today moving 180% of its daily ATR (average true range) as price rallied through last week’s resistnace and highs and over the 20 day MA before finding resistance at a fib retracement and 1.2400 level where price currently is at the time of publishing. PRICE is obviously still very bullish based on the strong USD and weak CAD so use caution taking counter trend trades on such strong trends. Use your FXMM’s and FXPI as a filter when deciding to do so. The next resistance is possibly the next long range fib retracement of 1.2524 and the monthly pivot from 1.2626-1.2650 which may be strong resistance if this level is tested on Tuesday or early this week. The fib retracement levels from last week’s low and Monday’s CURRENT high around 1.2400 which may be SUPPORT are 1.2237, 1.2190* and 1.2140. One of these levels are likely to offer support and a chance to reenter the strong uptrend from Monday’s bullish momentum!
Happy trading 