review
Review on 27th of May
NEWS: GBP (all day) Nationwide HPI
CAD 8:30 AM est Corporate Profits
USD 10:00 AM est Existing Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Private Capital Expenditure q/q
EUR/USD broke through Monday’s range and sold off rapidly to a fib level then rallied hard back into the consolidation area and is currently testing the highs of the week for resistance for the highs of the day. IF price rallies up, 1.4050 begins a zone containing the current yearly highs and was also the highs of last week as price found resistance at this level and sold off. This level may provide resistance if tested on Wednesday. The next possible resistance is 1.4172 (fib target.) IF price sells off, 1.3871 is a longer term 38% retracement and the low
of Tuesday and 1.3816 (fib retracement cluster and weekly pivot) for your potential support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to test the current weekly highs, sold off to a fib retracement and again has rallied to retest the highs of the week where price currently resides. IF price breaks through this level, the next possible resistance are the fib targets at 1.6034 and 1.6111. IF price fails at this level and sells off, watch for possible support just below 1.5800 and 1.5740. These represent the fib retracement levels from the most recent valid swing and the low of the week, as well.
USD/JPY had a very narrow range and low volatility as price moved less then 50% of its normal daily ATR (Average True Range.) This usually precedes a breakout trending type day so take note for Wednesday or Thursday. Price is also at the bottom of a long range channel seen on a daily chart and may be ready for a correction to the long side after the huge sell off for most of the month of May. IF price does rally, the next possible resistance are 95.25 and 96.10. These levels represent fib retracements and clusters of other various forms of resistance. IF price again sells off, 94.37 is a 62% retracement and last week’s low of 93.86 may be support!
USD/CHF rallied to a fib retracement level and sold off to retest the lows of the week where price has currently found support and rallied back into the daily trading range. Price is very weak and is below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price breaks support you may wish to attempt to short the breakdown of the level. The next possible support will be 1.0743 and 1.0719 that you may use as profit taking levels or potential counter trend opportunities. IF price rallies, from the current weekly low of 1.0813, then watch for possible resistance at 1.0928 (weekly high) and 1.0962 (next 62% retracement and monthly pivot.)
USD/CAD had a strong rally into resistance from a previous swing point from last Friday and sold off rapidly just below last week’s low to make new yearly lows where price currently resides. IF price continues the sell off, the next possible support are the fib targets from 1.1075 and 1.1006. These may be significant support levels but use caution when the prevailing trend is at its extremes. Use the FXPI and FXMM for confirmation when taking countertrend trades. If price finds support and rallies from 1.1170 level, then the current fib retracement levels that may provide resistance are 1.1270 and 1.1322. IF a new lower daily low is made below 1.1170 then redraw your own fibs and disregard the possible resistance levels I just mentioned.
Daily review
EUR/USD rallied and broke above the current weekly highs and rallied to new 10 day highs and new monthly highs, and is rapidly approaching the current yearly highs from early January. After retracing and selling off to the 200 day MA in the beginning of the week, price found support and has rallied strongly ever since. IF price continues to rally on Thusday, the next possible resistance is the fib target and monthly pivot at 1.3924, then at (1.3982-1.4000) which could be strong potential resistance (fib cluster and strong whole number. IF price reverses from the rally and sells off, the next fib retracement levels for potential support are 1.3678 (fib cluster) and 1.3627 (weekly 50% fib retracement.)
GBP/USD did manage to rally up to new yearly highs, and is currently well over the 200 day MA as well. IF price continues to rally for the rest of the week the next possible light resistance is the fib target at 1.5921 and the next fib target/whole number/fib retracement from 1.6000-1.6030 for stronger potential resistance. If price reverses from the strong rally and sells off from the daily highs, the current fib retracement levels from Wednesday’s big rally for potential support are 1.5625 and 1.5586. The next stronger possible support level is (1.5534-1.5510) and may allow a chance to reenter the strong weekly uptrend.
USD/JPY sold off as the weak USD pushed price down the 2nd consecutive day and has currently double near the lows of the week and is testing for support. IF price finds support and rallies on Thursday, the next key fib retracement for possible resistance are 95.55 and the current weekly highs at 96.69. IF price breaks below and makes new weekly lows, 93.90-93.80 is a fib target cluster and weekly pivot and 93.41 is the next fib target for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off and trended down all day and made new monthly lows before spiking up, finding support and consolidating the rest of the day. Price is also at the bottom quartile of a long term trend channel seen on a daily chart. Price is very weak, however and may need to consolidate before selling off below this level for the rest of the week. IF price does sell off below 1.0980 level then the next possible support is 1.0906 (light support) and 1.0867 (stronger potential support zone.) IF price does rally before retesting the lows, the next potential resistance is 1.1079, 1.1114 and 1.1150. These are the weekly 38/50/62% retracements and may be resistance when 1st tested!
USD/CAD also had a very weak downtrending day and an ultra weak USD pushed price into new yearly lows! Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.1274 and 1.1221 as fib targets from Wednesday’s current high/low swings. USE caution taking countertrend trades when the trend is very strong and use your FXPI and FXMM to filter out strong trends. Price is also near the bottom of the long term trend channel from a daily chart and may find support. IF price does find support and rallies for the rest of the week, the next key fib levels for possible resistance are the weekly fib retracements at 1.1533, 1.1586 and 1.1640. IF price makes a NEW DAILY lower low, then redraw your fibs from the weekly highs and lows and use THESE levels for potential resistance points.
Review on 20th of May
NEWS: GBP 4:30AM est MPC Meeting Minutes
CAD 7:00 AM est Core CPI m/m
USD 10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 PM est FOMC Meeting Minutes *
EUR/USD extended from Monday’s rally and found resistance at the next fib target, weekly pivot and previous high peak from last week for the current highs of the day. If price continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.3722 for the highs of the week and close to the yearly highs, then at 1.3800 (fib projection target.) IF price sells off, 1.3516 is the 62% fib retracement for week and 1.3424 is the current
weekly low for the possible support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to new yearly highs and found resistance at the 1.5500 zone where price is consolidating. Price well over the 20/50 day MA’s and approaching the 200 day MA. If price continues to rally the next possible resistance for fib targets are currently located at 1.5600 (also very close to the 200 day MA!) and 1.5650. If price sell off, 1.5350 and 1.5291 are the 38/50% retracements from
last week’s low and this week’s high.
USD/JPY was a very low volatility day and after making a slight new weekly high sold off and consolidated on low volume for the rest of the day. Price may be ready to rally and retest the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s for resistance before continuing the downtrend. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 97.15 and 97.77 (the next 50/62% retracement levels) for potential resistance. If price does not make a new daily higher high on Tuesday night or Wednesday, then the current 62% retracement for the week is 95.38 and 94.55 is the current weekly low for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off and found strong support at the next strong 62% retracement and rallied then sold off below this level and is approaching previous swings from last week’s lows to test for support. Price is still below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price continues to sell off, 1.1000 is the next zone for possible support and is just above last week’s low for possible support. IF price rallies, 1.1187 is the current 62% retracement for the week and a monthly pivot, and 1.1251 is among the weelky highs for possible resistance!
USD/CAD sold off to continue with the downtrend from Monday, found support at the 1st buy zone and weekly pivot, then sold off again to find support at the next fib target just below this level for the current lows of the day. IF the sell off continues, watch for potential support at 1.1481 (last weekly low and fib target) and at the next fib target cluster beginning at 1.1450. IF price needs to correct itself and rallies from this level, the current weekly fib retracement levels for potential resistance are 1.1667 and 1.1700. These levels are also in the trade zones so if a new lower low in price is made, the trade zones should have the updated zones for possible resistance so
please take note!
Daily plan on 19th of May
NEWS: USD 8:30AM est Housing Starts
EUR/USD sold off to the 200 day MA on Sunday evening and rallied for the rest of the day to find resistance at the weekly pivot for the current highs of the day. If price continues to rally on Tuesday, the next potential resistance is 1.3608 (next major 68% fib retracement) and 1.3650 (next peak high and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, 1.3400 is a long term 38% retracement and 1.3300 is the next 50%
major fib for potential support for tomorrow.
GBP/USD rallied to find resistance and the highs at the weekly highs from last week which are also very close to the yearly highs. IF price rallies up through this level, the next possible resistance is 1.5460 (fib target) and 1.5500 (fib target and monthly pivot. IF price sells off, 1.5200 is the 62% retracement from Monday’s high and low swings points, and 1.5060 is the low from last week for your possible support levels for Tuesday.
USD/JPY rallied to the 38% fib retracement from the high and low of last two weeks for the high of the day as price rapidly sold off. The next 50/62% levels for this swing are 97.16 and 97.77 for the next possible resistance. IF price sells off, the current 62% retracement for Monday is 95.34 and the low from Sunday is 94.55 which may act as support if tested.
USD/CAD sold off and trended down the entire day approx. 200 pips with very little retracement until price reached the ultimate lows of the day. Be cautious taking countertrend setups when price is trending heavily like this. Use the FXPI and FXMM before taking countertrend trades. IF price rallies, the 50/62% fib retracements for Monday’s range are currently 1.1709 and 1.1733 and the highs
from Sunday and last week are 1.1800 area for your possible resistance levels. IF price sells off, the weekly pivot is near the previous swing low at 1.1554 and the lows for last week are 1.1479 for your potential support!
USD/CHF rallied to the next major 38% retracement late Friday and early Sunday and sold off causing price to trend down most of the day. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support begins at 1.1090* and last week’s lows of 1.1039. If price rallies to test the highs of the week at 1.1261 at the next 50% fib retracement of 1.1359, may be possible resistance.
Happy trading
Review on Monday
NEWS: EUR 5:00 AM est Buba president Weber speaks
CAD (All day) Bank Holiday
AUD 6:10 PM est RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
9:30 PM est Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
EUR/USD continued to reverse from the long term rally and sell off late last week after some consolidation and is still overbought so watch for that to likely continue atleast into the early part of this week. The next possible support is 1.3405 (long term 38% retracement) and 1.3362 (fib target from last week’s high/low swings.) If price again rallies, the next resistance begins near 1.3558- 1.3576 as multiple
pivots and key fib retracements are currently located.
GBP/USD remained in a sideways consolidating channel for the entire weak, but along with the EUR, price is looking bearish. If price does sell off, the next high probably potential support begins at 1.5000 and at 1.4874 (next major fib retracement level.) If price rallies to test the highs, 1.5350 is last week’s high and could also be high probable resistance the 1st time tested this week. The next potential resistance is in the 1.5500 area (multiple pivots and fib profit targets.)
USD/JPY trended down for all of last week as a very weak JPY forced price short and then consolidated on Friday as price closed near it’s lows. IF price does find support and rallies, the next resistance are the major fib retracement levels at 96.65, 97.24 and 97.84. If the downtrend continues, watch for potential support is currently 94.08 and 93.44 as the next fib target clusters.
USD/CAD rallied for the entire week as price is very oversold and is quickly retracing back to the 200 and 20 day averages which are very close to each other in the 1.1900 range which should be tested some time this week so take note. If price does begin to rally to this level also watch for possible resistance at 1.1864 (long term 38% retracement.) IF price sells off, the current fib retracements from last week’s range which may provide support are currently 1.1638 and 1.1600.
USD/CHF also rallied to close out the week on Friday afternoon and is closing in on the 20 day MA and the 200/50 MA’s. If price continues to rally, the next long term fib retracement levels are currently 1.1357 and 1.1447 for the next strong potential resistance. If price sells off, 1.1118 and 1.1084 are the current 50/62% fib retracement levels for your possible support. If price makes a new
daily higher high on Sunday night or Monday, redraw the levels from the next new higher high.
Review on 14th of May 2009
NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est PPI / Unemployment Claims*
NZD 6:45 PM est Retail Sales
EUR/USD had an inside, lover volatility day as price sold off from the weekly highs and found support at the current weekly low. Price is testing the longer term resistance from mid-late March and made need some more selling off before the momemtum of the long term uptrend
is going to carry price through this level. Price is likely to sell off to the 200 day MA before doing so, pontentially at some point this week. If price does sell off, the next fib retracements for potential support are 1.3540 and 1.3485. IF price again rallies, the current weekly highs
just above the 1.3700 level may be resistance again, then 1.3777 is the next fib target cluster for the next possible resistance level. Take note of unemployment claims which is likely to introduce high volume and volatility into the market and can be somewhat unpredictable.
GBP/USD also had an inside day as price failed to test the weekly highs and failed to make a lower low then Tuesday even though price sold off fairly heavily after the 5:30 AM est news was released. Price did find resistance for the weekly highs at a previous resistance level at
the beginning of the year and could need to also sell off, like the EUR/USD, before momentum pushes price into new yearly highs. IF price sells off, 1.5000 may be strong support, initially, as this is a fib cluster and whole number. 1.4935 is a fib target from Wednesday’s high/low
swing points.
USD/JPY continued with the current weekly bearish trend and trended down for most of the day as price found the current daily low just below the previous monthly low/monthly pivot which was initially support when tested before breaking through the level. IF price continues
to sell off the next possible support is 94.25-94.00 which contains multiple fib targets, then 93.37 being the next level below this. The CURRENT daily low is 95.15. IF price does NOT make a new lower daily low then watch for potential resistance at 96.90, 97.47 and
98.00. These are the major fib retracements from highs of last week and the current low of this week.
USD/CHF had a slight rally after finding support near the 1.1000 number for the current weekly lows. Price double topped at the current weekkly highs and may be preparing for a slight rally for the rest of the week as price may need a correction after the big sell off to the bottom of the long term trend channel on a daily chart and whole number. IF price does rally, the next potential resistance is 1.1150 and 1.1200 as the next fib retracements from last week’s high to this week’s current low. IF price resumes the long term sell off, watch for potential support at current weekly lows of around 1.1000-1.0967 and the next fib target of 1.0870.
USD/CAD reversed from the strong sell off from the last 3 weeks and found the current high of the day at the next major 38% fib level. IF price needs more of a correction from the strong sell off and rallies again for the rest of the week, the next possible resistance is 1.1865 (may be strong potential resistnace when tested as this level is level is a major retracement cluster as of right now.) Next possible resistnace cluster begins at 1.1950, which is also identified currently as a trade zone. IF price sells off, 1.1500 zone is just above the weekly lows and could be support again when tested.
Review on Thursday
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing Production m/m
Trade Balance
AUD 5:30 AM est Annual Budget Release
CAD 8:30 AM est Trade Balance
USD 8:30 AM est Trade Balance
NZD 5:00 PM est RBNZ Financial Stability Report
EUR/USD retraced from last week’s big rally and had a slight selloff back to the previous monthly high which is now testing as support for the lows of the day. Price is still well above the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s so watch for potential support at the next fib retracement clusters
beginning at 1.3512 and 1.3468. IF the momentum continues with the current monthly rally, the next possible resistance may be at the next fib targets of 1.3796 (fib target, weekly pivot and whole number) then at 1.3873.
GBP/USD double topped at last week’s high and sold off to the next key 62% retracement for the lows of the day on light volatility. If price continues to retrace from the recent runup and sells off on Tuesday, the next fib retracement levels for possible support will be 1.4924 and 1.4828. IF price does continue with long rally, 1.5250 is this week’s and last week’s high where price bounced and may be resistance if tested again. The next potential resistance is 1.5367 as the next fib target and weekly pivot.
USD/JPY did manage to break through major support from the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s which were clustered together just below before Monday. Even with the light reversal of most of the USD based pairs as the USD gained strength, the usd/jpy still sold off. IF price does continue to sell off, the next fib cluster begins at 96.35 and then stronger potential support from (95.80-95.60)! IF price rallies, watch for a chance to enter the sell off at the key fib retracement levels 98.19, 98.42 and 98.70.
USD/CHF had a very low volume day and rallied slightly after the huge sell off on late Friday trading session. IF price continues to rally, the resistance clusters for possible resistance are (1.1220-1.1243) and 1.1268. IF USD again gains strength and the CHF weakens look for the downtrend to obviously continue. 1.0928 and 1.0869 are fib targets and weekly pivots and may offer light support but use caution if the FXPI or FXMM’s are at their extremes.
USD/CAD completely reversed from Friday’s sell off as a weak CAD helped to rally price and may test the highs of last Thursday/Friday now for resistance. IF price does continue to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.1762 (weekly pivot and last major highest swing point). 1.1870 is a fairly strong fib retracement cluster from multiple swings where price may also stall. IF price continuest to sell off, last week’s lows near the 1.1500 level may again be support if tested, then 1.1366 is the next fib target for lighter potential support.
Review on Monday
NEWS: USD 7:30 PM est Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
AUD 9:30 PM est Home Loans
EUR/USD rallied up heavily through the 200 day MA after earlier in the week price broke through a major trendline then sold off and used the previous resistance as strong support. If the rally continues, the next potential resistance is 1.3762 and 1.3813 as fib targets
projected from the most recent major price swings from late last week. IF price reverses and sells off, 1.3500 and 1.3454 are the next major fib retracements from the previously mentioned swings for potential support.
GBP/USD also rallied up strongly making new 10 day and monthly highs as a weak USD helped to change propel price directions on most of the major USD based pairs. IF price continues with the rally, watch for potential resistance at 1.5362 and 1.5433 from last Thursday’s low to Friday’s high. IF price sells off, the 50/62% retracements from the previously mentioned swing that may be potential support are 1.5094 and 1.5058.
USD/JPY double topped at the weekly highs and sold off to test for support at the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s which are currently very close to each other and are offering strong support. IF price breaks through this level, this may lead to a breakout down trending day. The next possible support are the next major fib retracements of 97.68 and 97.19. IF price holds at this level and rallies, watch for possible resistance next at 99.58 (weekly highs) and the 100.00 level (strong whole number.)
USD/CAD also broke through the 200 day MA last week and continued with the strong downtrend which will likely continue on Monday and possibly the beginning of the week. Possible support may be found at (1.1382-1.1359) (Fib targets and weekly pivot.) The next fib target is also near a monthly pivot around 1.1323. IF price retraces, the current fib retracement levels for possible resistance and a chance to reenter the downtrend are (1.1632-1.1657) (Fib retracement cluster and monthly pivot.)
USD/CHF ripped through major support and had a huge sell off late Friday afternoon. Obviously the momentum is still short but watch for possible light support at the fib target and weekly pivot at 1.0929 and the next fib target cluster beginning at 1.0883. IF price retraces and rallies, 1.1176-1.1188 is a fib retracement and pivot cluster for a chance to potentially enter the strong downtrend.
Review on 6th of May
NEWS: GBP 4:00 AM est Halifax HPI
4:30 AM est Services PMI
EUR 5:00 AM est Retail Sales
USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment
CAD 8:30 AM est Building Permits
10:00 AM est Ivey PMI
4:00 PM est BOC Gov Carney Speaks
4:00 PM est BOC Gov Carney Speaks
CHF 12:15 PM est SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
EUR/USD rallied to double top at the weekly highs then sold off to find support and bounce from the 38/50 and 62% weekly retracements. Price did break through a major trendline to the long side but may sell off again on Wednesday and retest this area for support. IF price
does sell off, watch for possible support at the next major fib retracements of 1.3256 and 1.3200 zone which are identified by the 1st two buy zones for tomorrow. IF price finds support and rallies, the current weekly high of 1.3430 may again provide resistance, as well as the next fib target cluster well above price at 1.3528 which is also near the 200 day MA!
GBP/USD rallied to make new 10 day highs again to extend the long term rally which began in late April. IF price continues to rally the next possible resistance begins in the 1.5200 area then at the next weekly fib targets of 1.5292 and 1.5370. Price is faily overextended and may need a retracement before extending the rally. IF price does retrace and sell off, the current fib levels for potential support are 1.4934 and (1.4879-1.4869.)
USD/JPY double bottomed at Monday’s low and the 20 day MA for support as the ultimate low of the day, then rallied back into the day’s trading range to consolidate for the rest of the day. Price is currently above the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s which are currently all within a 40 pip range of each other just below price. IF price sells off, watch the major fib levels for a potential bounce at 98.07, 97.60 and 97.14. IF price does breakout to the long side and rallies, the next possible resistance is the current weekly high and last week’s high of 99.59 for light resistance and 100.00 as stronger potential resistance (although be cautious taking countertrend trades if price violently breaksout long from the current weekly highs.)
USD/CHF had a lower volatility day while failing to make a lower daily low or higher high then Monday’s price action. The price is currently in between the 200 day MA and the strong support from April’s low. IF price rallies up, the fib retracements from the sell off at 1.1435 (first sell zone, also strong previous support) and the next retracement of 1.1500 may also be potential resistance. IF price sells off, 1.1183 and 1.1142 are the next fib target clusters for potential support.
USD/CAD made a new 10 day and weekly low as price dropped slightly below Monday’s low then rallied back into the range on low volatility. Price may need to retrace to the previous support and test this level for resistance, so watch for the key retracement clusters at 1.1860 and 1.1900.* IF price does resume the sell off after all of the momentum it has gained, the next potential support is 1.1617 and light support at the fib target of 1.1561.
Review on 5th of May
NEWS: AUD 12:30 AM est Cash Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
JPY (all day) Bank Holiday
GBP 7:01 PM est Nationwide Consumer Confidence
NOTE: Many USD based currencies are making new daily higherhighs and lower lows as many have broken through previouslystrong resistance or support. IF new highs/lows are made, thiscan change the fib retracement ratios, altering the listed supportand resistance points. I will attempt to update the trade zones if these points change before tommorow so use the trade zonesfor confirmation!
EUR/USD rallied up through resistance and above the long term trend line that hadcontained price since early March and is approaching the 200 day MA. The trend isstill obviously up as many of the USD based pairs have broken through major supportor resistance as demonstrated by a weak USD. IF price continues to rally, the nextpotential resistance is 1.3500 (fib target and approx. 200 day MA) and the next possible stronger resistance cluster beginning at 1.3550. If price sells off, 1.3250 is the current major 38% retracement as 1.3219 is as well which is also the close to the current weekly lows for potential support.
GBP/USD rallied up making new 10 day highs and is approaching the current monthly high of 1.5066 which may be strong resistance the 1st time tested if this level has not been tested as of Tuesday AM. If price does sell off, the current key fib retracement levels for possible support are 1.4869 and 1.4836.* IF price continues to rally up through the previous month’s high, the next potential resistance is the fib target and monthly pivot cluster beginning at 1.5108 and the next fib target of 1.5209 which may also be used as profit taking levels if you are currently in a long from the break out of the previously monthly high level.
USD/JPY found resistance at last week’s high and sold off slightly to test the 20 day MA as the daily lows. IF price continues to sell off, as a result of the weak USD, then watch for possible support at the next fib retracements beginning at 98.04* and 97.58. IF price rallies, last week’s high which had contained price previously multiple times at 99.58, may again provide resistance and 100.00 is the next potential resistance cluster.
USD/CHF sold off through major support at the 200 day MA and currently testing the previous month’s low as support for the lows of the day. The trend should still be down for most of the rest of the week, unless price retraces to test the previous strong support as resistance! IF price does retrace and rally, 1.1372 is approx. the area of the 200 day MA and 1.1427 begins an area of a fib retracement cluster for potential resistance and a chance to reenter the downtrend! IF price keeps selling off, the next possible support is the fib target of 1.1200 (and whole number) and the next fib target and weekly-mid pivot at 1.1144.
USD/CAD continued with the strong downtrend and made new 10 day and current yearly lows as price sold off below the 200 day MA strongly which may continue for the rest of the week. IF price retraces to previous resistance, watch for a chance to reenter the downtrend. 1.1929 and 1.1994 are the next current major fib retracement levels for possible resistance. IF price continues to sell off, watch for possible support at 1.1632 (fib target and monthly pivot) and beginning at 1.1535 (2nd buy zone). Use caution taking countertrend trades if the FXPI and FXMM are at their extremes!
Happy Trading 