plan
Trading plan for Monday
NEWS: CHF 3:15 AM est Retail Sales
CAD 8:15-8:30 AM est Housing Starts / Building permits
10:30 AM est BOC Business Outlook Survey
AUD 7:30 PM est Home Loans
EUR/USD rallied through resistance on Friday, over the 20 day MA where price closed above the previous
weekly highs where price is currently testing on late Sunday evening. IF price continues with the bullish price
action, the next possible resistance is 1.4530 and 1.4551 as the fib targets from the most recent high low swing.
IF price sells off from the current highs of Sunday, watch for possible support at the CURRENT fib retracement
levels at 1.4407, 1.4380 and 1.4352. IF a newer daily high in price is made, then redraw the fibs from the high
of Sunday to the low from last Friday and use these levels.
GBP/USD rallied up on Friday to the week’s 62% retracement for the high of the day then rallied again late
Sunday to double top at this level where price currently resides. IF price rallies to retest this level, 1.6109 is
the high of Friday and may again be resistance, as well as, 1.6192 which is the next fib target. IF price sells off,
1.6003 and 1.5977 are the fib retracements from last week’s low to Sunday’s high for potential support.
USD/JPY reversed from last week’s early rally and sold off on Friday after finding resistance at the 200 day
MA. Price is still strong, but may need to retrace if the uptrend is to continue. IF price does sell off, 92.22 is
a weekly pivot and 62% retracement and 91.64 is a fib target for possible support. IF price rallies, 93.00 and
93.18 are the CURRENT 50/62% retracements from last week’s high to Friday’s low for possible resistance.
USD/CAD continued to sell off and is still testing the lows of Sunday for support as price continues to sell off.
Price is testing a fib target for support. IF price breaks this level, the next possible support is 1.0218 and 1.0191
which are fib targets from various swings. IF price rallies from the current low of Sunday, 1.0337 is the 62%
retracement from Friday’s high and 1.0369 is approx. the highs of Friday for possible resistance.
Review on Monday
NEWS: EUR 5:00 AM est Industrial New Orders
CAD 8:30 AM est Core Retail Sales
NZD 11:00 PM est Inflation Expectations
EUR/USD had a big rally to open the session, retraced to 50% of the breakout then rallied
again to test the highs of the day. Currently Price is well above the 20 and 50 day MA’s but
may need to retrace to test support if the uptrend is to continue. IF price does sell off, 1.4250
is a fib retracement and weekly pivot and 1.4210 is the next long term 50% retracement for
possible support. IF momentum continues and takes price to test the highs, 1.4376 is the high
for last week and may again be resistance and 1.4441 is the next fib target from Friday’s
swing high/low.
GBP/USD rallied to double top at the previous weekly highs then sold off again, as price is
still contained between the 20 and 50 day MA’s as support and resistance. IF price rallies
to test the highs, 1.6624 is the high of last week and 1.6700 is the next fib target for potential
resistance for Monday. If price reverses and sells off, 1.6408 is the long term 62%
retracement and 1.6276 is the low of last week for high possible support for Monday as
well.
USD/JPY sold off on Friday to make new monthly lows then rallied hard in the afternoon
session and has since rallied early Sunday session to test the highs of Friday. IF price keeps
rallying 95.08 and 95.60 are the 38/50% retracements of the past several weeks where price
may find resistance. IF price sells off, 93.43 is the low of last week for possible support
if price tests this level on Monday or Tuesday.
USD/CAD also rallied heavily in the afternoon of the Friday session and is approaching the
potentially strong resistance where the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s are clustered. 95.08 and
95.60 are the next 38/50% retracements where price may find resistance. IF price sells off,
93.43 is the weekly low and weekly pivot for possible support and 92.65 is the next light
potential support point (fib target.)
USD/CHF sold off to major support for the lows of the week, where price is currently
testing again for support just above the monthly pivot. If price ultimately finds support here
and rallies, 1.0660 and 1.0681 are the next fib retracement levels from different weekly
and multi-weekly swings for possible resistance. IF price sells off, 1.0507 is a fib target
and 1.0477 is a fib target and weekly pivot for possible support as well.
Review on Wensday
NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est FOMC Member Dudley speaks
10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 PM est Beige Book
NZD 5:00 PM est Official Cash Rate
RBNZ Rate Statement
AUD 9:30 PM est Building Approvals
EUR/USD found resistance at the weekly highs and sold off rapidly to the long term 38% fib
retracement for the low of the day which were both trading zones. Price is over the 20/50
and 200 day MA’s but has met strong resistance levels as price has failed at this zone multiple
times this month. IF price rallies again, 1.4236 is the 62% retracement of Tuesday and 1.4291
is approx. last week’s high where price may be resistance on Wednesday. IF price sells off,
1.4123 and 1.4068 are the next long term fib retracement levels for potential support.
GBP/USD also rallied to strong resistance which has held since last May and sold off to double
bottom at the weekly lows from Sunday for the low of the day. Price is just above the 20 and
50 day MA which may act as support if tested this week. IF price rallies to retest the previously
mentioned resistance zone, watch for resistance from 1.6566-1.6586 (weekly pivot and last
week’s high) and at 1.6683 and 1.6743 which are fib projection targets from last week’s high/low
swing. If price sells off, 1.6354 is the next long term 38% fib retracement and 1.6311 is last
week’s low which may be support when tested.
USD/JPY sold off after finding strong resistance at the 200 day MA and sold off to just above
the 38% fib retracement from the lows of 2 weeks ago and this week’s high. If price sells off
again to test this mentioned level, 94.00 is the 38% level and 93.56 is the next 50% retracement
for possible support as well. IF price rallies on Wednesday, 95.29 is the weekly high and 96.10
is the next fib target cluster for possible resistance levels.
USD/CAD sold off again to barely make new lows for month as price is again testing the strong
support levels from the lows of late May. Price then quickly was bought and rallied for the rest
of the active trading session before selling back off showing indecision for the immediate price
direction for the rest of the week. IF price does fail at the support level just mentioned and rallies,
1.0930 and 1.0975 are the next longer term fib retracements which may be resistance if tested.
If price sells off again, 1.0669 and 1.0613 are the next fib targets from various intra-weekly
swings for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off briefly to double bottom near the weekly low then rallied heavily to make
new weekly highs just above last week’s high as price found resistance for the high of the day
at the 20 day MA. Price is stuck between strong support at lows from early June and resistance
from the 20 and 50 day MA’s resulting in the consolidating price action. IF price rallies, 1.0800
is approx the weekly high and 1.0818 is the next 62% fib retracement from 2 weeks ago high
to last week’s low for possible resistance. IF price sells off, 1.0634 is the weekly pivot and
begins the very strong potential support from the zone previously mentioned which may be
support and possible chance to get into a nice countertrend rally. IF this level is broken,
however, be aware that a very strong sell off is likely to potentially happen as stops are
triggered from people who have had long positions from the zone for the past several months.
Review on 21st
NEWS: CAD 9:00 AM est BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
AUD 9:30 PM est CPI
EUR/USD rallied up to make new monthly and 10 day highs and is approaching last
month’s high. The high of the day for Monday was a long range fib target and the next
possible resistance is the next fib target for this particular swing at 1.4317. The next
possible resistance is 1.4361. IF price sells off, 1.4133 is approx. the 62% retracement
for the week and 1.4089 is the next long term 38% retracement for potential support.
GBP/USD rallied up strongly after finding support at the 20 day MA and also made
new 10 day highs as price continued from last week’s rally. IF price keeps rallying up,
the next fib targets from Friday’s low to this week’s current high are 1.6655 and 1.6721.
IF price sells off, 1.6407 and 1.6374 are the 50/62% retracements from the previously
mentioned swing.
USD/JPY rallied to the 20 day MA and found resistance for the highs of the day then
sold off rapidly to make new daily/weekly lows. Price is still below the 20/50 and 200
day MA’s after rallying up to and correcting itself from the previous news related huge
sell off from weeks ago. Price is making lower lows in price at the time of publication.
IF price keeps selling off, 93.26 and 92.91 are the next major 50/62% retracements
for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.00 begins the next major possible resistance
zone.
USD/CHF had a steep sell off to open the trading session then consolidated for the
rest of the day. IF price continues to drop, as price appears to be bearish for the
early part of the week, the next possible support is 1.0597 and 1.0560. IF price
rallies, 1.0755 is the current 62% retracement from last Friday’s high to this week’s
current low and 1.0798 is the next major 50% retracement for possible resistance.
USD/CAD sold off below last week’s low and strong support to make new monthly
lows and found the low of the day at the fib target from last Wednesday’s move. IF
price keeps selling off, 1.0977 is the next fib target from the previously mentioned
swing and 1.0786 is last month’s low which may be strong potential support if tested
this week. IF price rallies, 1.1200 is the beginning of the next stronger possible
resistance cluster and 1.1267 is the next long term 38% retracement.
Review on 1st of July 2009
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing PMI
USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment Change**
10:00 AM est ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Trade Balance
EUR/USD rallied to last weeks high where price double topped, then sold off to the key
1.4000 level for the current low of the day. If price continues to sell off on Wednesday,
1.4000 may again be light support but use caution as this will be the 3rd time testing this
zone this week. The next possible higher percentage potential support it 1.3950, long term
fib retracement level, bottom on trend channel and half-number.) IF price rallies, watch
for light resistance at the weekly highs again at 1.4138 and at 1.4168 which is the previous
monthly high.
GBP/USD rallied over the top of the sideways consolidation channel then sold off quickly
resulting in the false breakout. This is generally a bearish sign, but IF price rallies to test the
highs of the channel watch for possible resistance at 1.6544, 1.6582 and 1.6620 which are
the current daily fib retracement levels for Tuesday’s sell off. IF ANY OF THESE levels
change after this letter is released they will updated on your trade zones as they appear on
your charts at midnight EST so please take note! If price continues the sell off, the next
possible support are the fib targets 1.6348 and 1.6300.*
USD/JPY sold off late in the JPY session yesterday then quickly rallied to make new weekly
highs as price should close over the 200 day MA. Price is now between the 200 and 20/50
day MA’s and may consolidate before breakout from these support and resistance zones. If
price rallies, 96.57 is last weekly high and 96.96 is the next fib target cluster which may offer
resistance. IF price sells off, 95.77 is a fib retracement cluster and 95.60 is the next longer
term 62% retracement for potential support.
USD/CHF sold off to test the 20 day MA then rallied for the rest of the day and found
resistance the next longer term 38% retracement for the current high of the day. IF price
continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.0900 and 1.0927 which represent fib
retracement levels from the most recent major swing from last week’s high to this week’s
current low. IF price sells off, 1.0800 begins the lowest support cluster which was the low
of the day. IF tested on Wednesday, this may again be support with the next possible
support beginning at 1.0711 (fib target cluster.)
USD/CAD rallied up to last weeks high where price found resistance and consolidated for
the rest of the day where price currently resides. IF price rallies and breaks through this
level, the next possible resistance is 1.1713 and 1.1759 as the fib targets from the most recent
swing. IF price fails at the current highs and sells off, 1.1519 and 1.1488 are the next longer
term fib retracement zones which may be support if tested.
EUR/JPY rallied up to Monday’s and last month’s high where price again found resistance
for the highs of the day and sold off back into the range. Price should close between the 20
and 50 day MA’s. Price closed out the day into a consolidating wedge pattern at the time
of publishing and should breakout nicely. IF price rallies up, the next possible resistance is
136.26 (long term 62% retracement) and 136.94 is a fib target cluster which begins the next
possible resistance zone.
GBP/JPY rallied to a fib target and sold off quickly to near the bottom of the multiday trend
channel. 158.00 is the bottom of the trend channel and 38% fib retracement and 157.16 is
the next 50% fib retracement wher price may find support. IF price rallies, 160.23 and
161.20 are fib targets which are also near the top of the previously mentioned trend channel
which may be resistance if tested.
Review on Monday of 22nd
NEWS: EUR 4:00 AM est German Ifo Business Climate
EUR/USD rallied to the previously mentioned 1.4000 level for the highs of the week on Friday as price also found resistance at the 20 day MA and sold off back into the range. If price rallies on Monday, this level, 1.4000 may again provide resistance, as well as the next major 50% fib retracement at 1.4043. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is 1.3849 and just above the monthly pivot and could be potentially strong support. The next possible support is 1.3760 (last week’s low.)
GBP/USD rallied hard after finding support at the 20 day MA for multiple days and is currently approaching the monthly and yearly highs. IF price does continue to rally, last week’s high was 1.6621 and 1.6700 is a fib target which may also offer resistance. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is currently 1.6330 and 1.6210 is the next long term range 50% retracement for potential support.
USD/JPY rallied heavily on Thursday before selling off strongly on Friday and closing below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. Price is currently stuck in between a long term wedge consolidation pattern seen on a daily chart as price has bounced from the tops and bottoms of this range for the last several months. If price rallies on Monday, 97.05 and 97.42 are the current 50/62% retracements for last week’s high/low range for possible resistance. If price sells off, 95.63 is approx. last week’s low and 95.02 begins a fib target cluster for potential support.
USD/CAD consolidated for most of the week within a tight range as price attempted to break out of the range on Wednesday resulting in a false breakout and a sell off back into the range. Price is between the 20 and 50 day MA’s. 1.1450 is last week’s high and 1.1540 is a fib target for possible resistance on Monday. IF price sells off, watch for potential support at 1.1255 and 1.1196 (next major fib support levels.)
Review on 2nd of June
NEWS: AUD 12:30 AM est Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement
9:30 PM est GDP
EUR 5:00 AM est Unemployment Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
(all day) Total Vehicle Sales
EUR/USD rallied to make new monthly and yearly highs above the previous resistance as a
weak USD drove many of the major pairs on Monday. Price is testing a previous swing
point from late 2008 in the 1.4250-1.4300 level and may need some consolidation before
this level is penetrated. IF price does rally on Tuesday, 1.4286 is a fib target and weekly
pivot, then 1.4400-1.4420 is approx. the next possible resistance cluster. IF price reverses
and sells off, the next possible support are the fibs from last week’s low to this week’s high
at 1.4073, 1.4020 and 1.3967.
GBP/USD also had a big rally as price broke through previously strong resistance to also
make new yearly highs and is testing the resistance from a previous swing point from late
October of last year. The next possible resistance is 1.6616 and 1.6689 as fib targets
from the day’s high/low range. IF price sells back off to test the previous resistance now
as support, watch 1.6303 and 1.6220 for potential support zones.
USD/JPY trended up for the entire day as price moved 185% of its normal ATR (Average
True Range) and is testing the 20 and 200 day MA’s for possible resistance. IF price
continues to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high which may provide solid resistance the first
time tested unless the FXMM and FXPI are at their extremes. The next possible resistance
is 97.71 (fib target and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, the fib retracement levels for
Monday’s huge up move that may be support are currently 95.91, 95.63 and 95.35.
USD/CHF also sold off to make new monthly lows and is approaching the yearly lows,
then rallied back into the days range. Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s
and has sold off for most of the month but could be ready for a correction sometime
during the early part of the week as price is testing the previous yearly lows. IF price does
sell off to test these levels, watch for possible support at 1.0600 and 1.0560. These are
fib targets that are currently located in the previous swing low area then I was speaking of.
IF price reverses and rallies, the current fib retracements from last week’s high to Monday’s
current low are 1.0746, 1.0786 and 1.0826 that may provide resistance.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows as well and found support at the 1.0800 level
as price then rallied back up above Sunday’s high. Price is still extrememly weak but is
not near any other major swing low levels which may indicate that price will continue to
make new yearly lows at some point during the week. IF so, 1.0800 as Monday’s low
may be support and 1.0729 is the beginning of the next fib target cluster. IF price rallies,
the fib retracement cluster levels that may be resistance if tested are currently 1.1000,
1.1070 and 1.1137.
Review on 28th of May
NEWS: GBP 6:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales
USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims*
10:00 AM est New Home Sales
NZD 6:45 PM est Building Consents
EUR/USD had a slight rally to begin the trading session and found resistance at the highs of Tuesday, double topped, and sold off to make new weekly lows. This is likely indicating a reversal of the USD based pairs, atleast for the time being, as several of the pairs are at their
extremes or the tops or bottoms of their respective long term trend channels indicating the overbought or oversold conditions. IF the eur/usd continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.3813 and 1.3743 as the next 38/50% fib retracements from last week’s low to this week’s high. IF price rallies to test the highs of the week, 1.4051 is the current weekly high and 1.4177 is a fib target for potential resistance.
GBP/USD rallied up above resistance to make new monthly/yearly highs, again, and has sold off to test the previous resistance now as support. Price has been very strong but is also oversold and may need to sell off for the rest of the week. 1.5867 and 1.5800* are the next fib retracements from the most recent valid swing points from last week and may be support if tested on Thursday. IF price continues to rally and make new weekly highs, the next possible resistance is the highs from Wednesday at 1.6086 and the next fib target and weekly pivot at 1.6200.
USD/JPY managed to rally after finding a base for support at a previous swing low point from mid March. Price is likely to rally and retest previous support levels now as resistance. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 95.63 (62% retracement, monthly pivot) and 96.11 (long term fib retracement cluster.) If price continues with the downward momentum, 94.50 is the next 62% retracement from last week’s low to this week’s high and 93.86 IS last week’s low for the next possible support.
USD/CHF also created a base at the bottom of a long term trend channel and is attempting currently to rally and breakout from the consolidation at the bottom of the channel that has occured since the beginning of the week. IF price does breakout to the long side, the
next possible resistance is 1.0960 and 1.1037 (fib retracement levels from multiple longer term swings.) IF price sells off and retests the lows, 1.0813 is the currently low for the week where price has found support multiple times and 1.0717 is a fib target which may offer
support if tested on Thursday or Friday.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows just below the 1.1100 level and rallied to make new daily highs for the day. Price is way oversold and is difficult to determine trend direction but expect a major correction to the long side at some point this week or early next. If price does rally, 1.1287 is a 50% fib retracement and 1.1350 is near the current weekly high and fib retracement and may offer resistance. IF price continues with the strong sell off, 1.1100 was the lows of the day and 1.1000 is the next fib target and whole number for potential support.
Review on 27th of May
NEWS: GBP (all day) Nationwide HPI
CAD 8:30 AM est Corporate Profits
USD 10:00 AM est Existing Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Private Capital Expenditure q/q
EUR/USD broke through Monday’s range and sold off rapidly to a fib level then rallied hard back into the consolidation area and is currently testing the highs of the week for resistance for the highs of the day. IF price rallies up, 1.4050 begins a zone containing the current yearly highs and was also the highs of last week as price found resistance at this level and sold off. This level may provide resistance if tested on Wednesday. The next possible resistance is 1.4172 (fib target.) IF price sells off, 1.3871 is a longer term 38% retracement and the low
of Tuesday and 1.3816 (fib retracement cluster and weekly pivot) for your potential support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to test the current weekly highs, sold off to a fib retracement and again has rallied to retest the highs of the week where price currently resides. IF price breaks through this level, the next possible resistance are the fib targets at 1.6034 and 1.6111. IF price fails at this level and sells off, watch for possible support just below 1.5800 and 1.5740. These represent the fib retracement levels from the most recent valid swing and the low of the week, as well.
USD/JPY had a very narrow range and low volatility as price moved less then 50% of its normal daily ATR (Average True Range.) This usually precedes a breakout trending type day so take note for Wednesday or Thursday. Price is also at the bottom of a long range channel seen on a daily chart and may be ready for a correction to the long side after the huge sell off for most of the month of May. IF price does rally, the next possible resistance are 95.25 and 96.10. These levels represent fib retracements and clusters of other various forms of resistance. IF price again sells off, 94.37 is a 62% retracement and last week’s low of 93.86 may be support!
USD/CHF rallied to a fib retracement level and sold off to retest the lows of the week where price has currently found support and rallied back into the daily trading range. Price is very weak and is below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price breaks support you may wish to attempt to short the breakdown of the level. The next possible support will be 1.0743 and 1.0719 that you may use as profit taking levels or potential counter trend opportunities. IF price rallies, from the current weekly low of 1.0813, then watch for possible resistance at 1.0928 (weekly high) and 1.0962 (next 62% retracement and monthly pivot.)
USD/CAD had a strong rally into resistance from a previous swing point from last Friday and sold off rapidly just below last week’s low to make new yearly lows where price currently resides. IF price continues the sell off, the next possible support are the fib targets from 1.1075 and 1.1006. These may be significant support levels but use caution when the prevailing trend is at its extremes. Use the FXPI and FXMM for confirmation when taking countertrend trades. If price finds support and rallies from 1.1170 level, then the current fib retracement levels that may provide resistance are 1.1270 and 1.1322. IF a new lower daily low is made below 1.1170 then redraw your own fibs and disregard the possible resistance levels I just mentioned.
Daily review
EUR/USD rallied and broke above the current weekly highs and rallied to new 10 day highs and new monthly highs, and is rapidly approaching the current yearly highs from early January. After retracing and selling off to the 200 day MA in the beginning of the week, price found support and has rallied strongly ever since. IF price continues to rally on Thusday, the next possible resistance is the fib target and monthly pivot at 1.3924, then at (1.3982-1.4000) which could be strong potential resistance (fib cluster and strong whole number. IF price reverses from the rally and sells off, the next fib retracement levels for potential support are 1.3678 (fib cluster) and 1.3627 (weekly 50% fib retracement.)
GBP/USD did manage to rally up to new yearly highs, and is currently well over the 200 day MA as well. IF price continues to rally for the rest of the week the next possible light resistance is the fib target at 1.5921 and the next fib target/whole number/fib retracement from 1.6000-1.6030 for stronger potential resistance. If price reverses from the strong rally and sells off from the daily highs, the current fib retracement levels from Wednesday’s big rally for potential support are 1.5625 and 1.5586. The next stronger possible support level is (1.5534-1.5510) and may allow a chance to reenter the strong weekly uptrend.
USD/JPY sold off as the weak USD pushed price down the 2nd consecutive day and has currently double near the lows of the week and is testing for support. IF price finds support and rallies on Thursday, the next key fib retracement for possible resistance are 95.55 and the current weekly highs at 96.69. IF price breaks below and makes new weekly lows, 93.90-93.80 is a fib target cluster and weekly pivot and 93.41 is the next fib target for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off and trended down all day and made new monthly lows before spiking up, finding support and consolidating the rest of the day. Price is also at the bottom quartile of a long term trend channel seen on a daily chart. Price is very weak, however and may need to consolidate before selling off below this level for the rest of the week. IF price does sell off below 1.0980 level then the next possible support is 1.0906 (light support) and 1.0867 (stronger potential support zone.) IF price does rally before retesting the lows, the next potential resistance is 1.1079, 1.1114 and 1.1150. These are the weekly 38/50/62% retracements and may be resistance when 1st tested!
USD/CAD also had a very weak downtrending day and an ultra weak USD pushed price into new yearly lows! Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.1274 and 1.1221 as fib targets from Wednesday’s current high/low swings. USE caution taking countertrend trades when the trend is very strong and use your FXPI and FXMM to filter out strong trends. Price is also near the bottom of the long term trend channel from a daily chart and may find support. IF price does find support and rallies for the rest of the week, the next key fib levels for possible resistance are the weekly fib retracements at 1.1533, 1.1586 and 1.1640. IF price makes a NEW DAILY lower low, then redraw your fibs from the weekly highs and lows and use THESE levels for potential resistance points.