European forex blog » march

Fx daily plan on 31st

trader — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 08:10:16 +0000

NEWS: EUR 5:00 AM est CPI Flash Estimate

CAD 8:30 AM est GDP

USD 10:00 AM est CB Consumer Confidence

JPY 7:50 PM est Tankan Manufacturing Index

A UD 8:30 PM est Building Approvals, Retail Sales

EUR/USD continued to sell off after breaking out of the consolidation pattern late last week and found support near the 20 day MA for the final low of the day at the weekly pivot. IF price is to continue to sell off on Tuesday, the next possible support is the 1.3100 level which is also the high from last month. The next possible support is the monthly pivot at 1.3000. IF price retraces from the steep sell off, watch for strong potential resistance beginning at 1.3340 then at 1.3424.

GBP/USD sold off at the beginning of the trading session and Sunday night then found support at the 20 and 50 day MA’s and rallied for the rest of the day. Price could also be ready for a correction to the long side after last week’s strong sell off. If price does rally, watch for possible resistance at the next major fib levels, 1.4365 (light resistance) and 1.4444 (strong possible resistance!) IF price sells off again, 1.4079 is the next long term 62% fib retracement and 1.3963 is a fib target for potential support.

USD/JPY sold and trended down strongly at the opening of the London session then found support at the next major 50% fib retracement at 96.20 and rallied up strongly for the rest of the day. The next major retracement level is the 62% at 95.57 for strong possible support at the monthly pivot at 95.00. If price rallies on Tuesday, watch for price to test the top of the long term trend line for possible resistance at 98.85!

USD/CAD exploded up on Monday, continuing the rally that began mid last week and found the high of the day, currently, at the 20 day MA where price is currently residing. IF price extends the rally, the next potential strong resistance is 1.2730-1.2750, then at 1.2814 (fib target.) If price sells off, use the next current fib retracements from last week’s low and this week’s high for the next support levels. Currently, they are 1.2500 and 1.2456.

USD/CHF broke out of the sideways consolidation pattern during most of last week and continued the rally on Monday on low volatility then found resistance for the highs of the day at the 20 day MA. IF price continues the rally, 1.1658 should be a strong possible resistance cluster and 1.1697 is the next fib target cluster for potential resistance as well. IF price sells off, watch for 1.1400 and 1.1360 for support for potential countertrend opportunities!

Happy trading

Levels on 30th March

trader — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 09:37:48 +0000

Buys

USD/CHF
Lightly buy 1.1330 and aggressively 1.1300

GBP/USD
May reverse tomorrow. Buy breakout of 1.4350 up to 1.4450 where it may stall

USD/CAD
Buy breakout of 1.2450, may stall at 1.2465

AUD/USD
Under .6943 look for shorts down to .6800

Sells

GBP/JPY

Sell 141.75 to 142.06 and 142.75

NZD/USD
Sell .5750

CAD/JPY
Sell 79.66 to 80.00

USD/JPY
Sell 99.00

EUR/USD
Sell 1.3450 and aggressively 1.3500

AUD/JPY
Lightly sell 68.31 and aggressively 68.50 to 68.59

EUR/CAD
Lightly sell 68.31 and aggressively 68.50 to 68.59

EUR/GBP
Sell .9350

NZD/JPY
Sell 56.50

EUR/JPY
Sell 131.74 to 132.27

Daily review on 27th

trader — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 08:04:42 +0000

NEWS: GBP 5:30 AM est Current Account

USD 8:30 AM est Personal Spending / Personal Income

9:55 AM est Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

EUR/USD rallied again up to the top of a long range consolidating channel and found resistance for the highs of the day then sold back off into the range. IF price remains in the channel on Friday watch for possible support at approx. 1.3420 as the bottom of the channel and near the lows of the week. The next possible support is the next 50% retracement of 1.3332. If price rallies, 1.3651 is near the highs of Wednesday and Thursday and may again offer resistance. The next possible resistance is 1.3738 as the highs of last weeek and current monthly high.

GBP/USD sold off through support and made new weekly lows as price is also in a slight downward channel and appears to have a short bias correction after the recent two week rally. Price is still over the 20 and 50 day MA but if price drops, the next possible support is 1.4350 as the next major 38% retracement and 1.4300 (weekly pivot and whole number / fib target.) If price reverses and rallies, watch for possible resistance at 1.4600 and 1.4644 as the current fib retracement levels from the weekly high/low. IF PRICE makes a new LOWER LOW then 1.4425, then disregard the fib retracement levels and recalculate them with the new low!

USD/JPY found support at the 20 day MA and rallied to make new weekly highs and is currently testing the current monthly highs for resistance. If price continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 99.76 and 100.50* (fib target and fib target cluster.) IF price finds resistnace at the monthly highs and sells off on Friday, 96.92 is Wednesday’s low and 96.21 is near the CURRENT 50% fib retracement and weekly pivot for the next potential support!

USD/CHF has now bounced from the 200 day MA for multiple days in a row and bounced strongly each time. Price has been in a sideways consolidating channel after the huge sell off last week. IF price sells off again, the 200 day MA near the 1.1180 is also a monthly pivot and may again offer support but be cautious for price to possibly break the support due to the amount of times this zone has beentested previously. If price rallies, 1.1400 is the previous monthly low and was strong support and nowshould provide some sort of resistance if the USD/CHF manages to test this level on Friday.

USD/CAD has also been in a sideways channel for the entire week and been generally non volatile so watch for a chance to buy the breakout of 1.2329 and possible sell the breakdown of 1.2275 as these are the close to the top and bottom of the channel and may provide an opportunity to catch the breakout moves. Thursday should also close as an NR4 inside day which usually precedes a large breakout type day with fairly strong trends so keep an eye out!

Happy trading

Review on Thursday 26

trader — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 09:19:46 +0000

NEWS: GBP 5:30 AM est Retail Sales

USD 8:30 AM est ** Unemployment Claims **

NZD 5:45 PM est Trade Balance / GDP

EUR/USD double bottomed at the weekly lows and rallied strongly for the rest of the day after a home sales report was released which resulted in the weak USD. Price is still in a slight downward sloping channel and the high of the day was ultimately at the top of the channel. IF price continues to rally, watch for the daily highs and weekly highs of 1.3650 and 1.3738 as potential resistance. IF price sells off, 1.3430 is the long term 38% fib retracement and near the low of the day on Wednesday, then 1.3335 as the next 50% fib retracement for the next possible support levels.

GBP/USD sold off to last weeks high’s and tested this level now for support near a weekly pivot and 1.4500 whole number. Price is over the 20 and 50 day MA’s but may be ready for a correction to the short side. IF price does sell off, watch for possible support at 1.4420 and 1.4310 as the next major fib levels from last week’s low to this week’s current high. IF price rallies, the next possible resistance is the current weekly high of 1.4778 and the next monthly pivot of 1.4846.

USD/JPY sold off again as price found resistance just above the 20 day MA and a major trend line. If price continues to sell off from this momentum on Thursday, 97.00 and 96.64 are the next fib retracement levels which may act as support. Watch for possible resistance from 98.57 to 99.00 which represents a strong resistance cluster and may present potential countertrend opportunities.

USD/CHF rallied to double top at the weekly highs and sold off sharply on USD news to find support at the 200 day MA again which has held price since middle of last week. IF price manages to sell off below this level, you may attempt to sell the break down but be cautious of false breakouts. IF price rallies, the current weekly highs in the 1.1325 zone may again provide resistance.

USD/CAD also sold off strongly after USD news but managed to rally in the afternoon and double top at the daily highs. Price is still below the 20 and 50 day MA’s but could be ready to rally after finding support at last week’s low on Monday of THIS week. IF price sells off, this level at 1.2193 and last MONTH’S low of 1.2134 may act as strong support! IF price rallies, 1.2436 is a monthly mid-pivot and 1.2471 is the next major 50% retracement which could be resistance!

Review on 25th

trader — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 07:03:06 +0000

NEWS: AUD 3:30 AM est RBA Gov Stevens Speaks

EUR 5:00 AM est German Ifo Business Climate

GBP 7:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales

USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders

10:00 AM est New Home Sales***

NZD 5:45 PM est Current Account

EUR/USD managed to sell off slightly below the sideways consolidation channel that had contained price since last Thursday. Price is now testing this previous previous support as resistance as price bounced from the bottom of the lower quartile of the channel. This may indicate that price is ready to sell off tomorrow or at least have a short bias especially if price can break down below the monthly pivot. Watch for possible resistance at the weekly high of 1.3738, BUT IF this level is broken, watch for an opportunity for long entries, such as a breakout and sell back to this level to test for support! If price does sell off as expected, 1.3340 is a fib retracement and 50% fib level , then 1.3242 is the next major fib level which may both offer support!

GBP/USD rallied up through resistance and made new 10 day highs and has come back down to the previous resistance and has tested for support several times and held each time so far. IF this level holds and price rallies, 1.4846-1.4886 is a resistance cluster and 1.4984 is last months high for the next higher potential resistance levels. IF price sells back off below 1.4648 then the next possible support is 1.4535 for light support (62% retracement) and 1.4450-1.4418 as strong possible support.

USD/JPY rallied up to the 20 day MA and sold off towards late Tuesday night as price also hit the top of a long term trend line which may reverse price to the short side on Wednesday. If price does sell off 97.00 and 96.64* are fib retracement levels with 96.64 being a fib retracement cluster which could be strong support the 1st time tested as long as the FX multimaps and FX power index are not at their extremes. IF price rallies, 98.71 is the beginning of the next resistance cluster and trade zone for strong potential resistance as price has failed near this level multiple times already.

USD/CAD sold off to double bottom at last week’s lows then rallied for the remainder of the day indicating that price may be ready to rally on Wednesday or for the remainder of the week. IF price rallies, the next possible resistance is 1.2406 and 1.2465 (38% fib retracement, weekly pivot/50% retracement.) IF price sells off, watch for the currently week low to again offer support as price has bounced from this level heavily before BUT IF price drops through this level, be prepared to short the break down as this may trend down extremely heavily as many stops are likely to triggered!!

USD/CHF for the 4th day in a row tested and failed at the 200 day MA as price is now in a sideways consolidating channel after the massive sell off from mid last week. There is a slight long bias so be prepared for price to potentially breakout of the consolidating channel and correct itself after the huge sell off previously mentioned. IF price rallies over 1.1340, this may be a great chance for a long entry by buying the breakout, but be cautious for false breakouts! The next possible resistance is 1.1140-1.1467 and 1.1561* (fib retracement levels and combinations of monthly and weekly pivots.)

Levels to focus on March 24

trader — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 21:25:59 +0000

NEWS: GBP 5:30 AM est CPI

5:45 AM est Inflation Report Hearings

11:30 AM est BOE Gov King Soeaks

USD 10:00 AM est Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

EUR/USD tripple topped at the high of last week for Monday’s high then sold off and found support at the bottom of a trend channel just below Friday’s low for the ultimate low of the day. Price is in a consolidating channel after the huge breakout from last week and may need a few days of consolidation before breaking out one way or the other and trending. IF price rallies, take note of the 1.3730 area as this level has contained price multiple times before and may again provide for resistance. IF the level does not hold watch for a possible possibility to buy the breakout. The next possible resistance is 1.3851 (fib target.) IF price sells off, 1.3390, 1.3284 and 1.3187 are the next fib retracement levels from last week’s high/low for possible support.

GBP/USD had a false breakout above last week’s high then sold off back into the range. Price has shifted now above the 20 and 50 day MA’s and trend bias is still somewhat bullish. IF price does breakout to the long side, the next possible resistance are the fib target clusters beginning at 1.4745 and the next monthly pivot and fib target from 1.4746-1.4865. IF price sells off, 1.4338 is a 38% retracement from last week’s swing and the next fib retracement cluster zone is 1.4268-1.4243 for possible support points!

USD/JPY is stuck between the 20 and 50 day MA’s but manage to extend from late last week’s rally and trended up for most of the day. IF price does manage to rally, the next major 1.618 fib target is 98.00 and 98.75! IF price reverses from the short term rally, watch for possible support at the fib retracement levels from Monday’s high to last week’s low at 95.88, 95.43 and 95.00.

USD/CHF sold off to find support at the 200 day MA for the 3rd day in a row, then had a short lived rally only to close near the opening price range of the day. If price sells off below the 1.1161 level (approx. the level of the 200 day MA) then try to sell the breakdown of this level! The next possible support are the fib target clusters of 1.1043 and 1.0972. IF price maintains support at the 200 day MA and rallies, 1.1467 and 1.1562 are the next LONG TERM major fib retracements that should offer some sort of resistance on the 1st time being tested.

USD/CAD is now well under the 20 and 50 day MA and is currently testing last week’s lows as support at the time of publishing. IF price continues to sell off below the level, watch for short bias for Tuesday and the next possible support is 1.2134 (previously month’s low and monthly pivot) then 1.2073 (fib target for light potential support.) IF price rallies, 1.2446 is the high of Friday and begins a resistance zone, THEN 1.2522 begins the NEXT potential strong resistance zone which may provide solid resistance!

Use these levels below to find high propability trades, and make more pips

AUD/JPY Buy lightly 67.50 but 67.10 to 67.00 should be low

AUD/USD Buy .6950 to .6943

CAD/JPY Buy 78.00 to 77.78

USD/JPY Buy 96.00 to 95.77

GBP/JPY Buy 139.22 to 139.00

NZD/JPY Lightly buy 54.50 and aggressively 54.09 to 53.93

USD/CHF Buy breakout of 1.1300 and also buy 1.1125 to 1.1100

GBP/USD May be running out of steam. If it breaks 1.4600 and EURGBP trending down buy otherwise sell 1.4700 to 1.4730

NZD/USD Sell .5760

EUR/JPY Seems to be topping out, look to sell 133.14 to 133.50

USD/CAD Sell 1.2350 and 1.2450 and breakdown of 1.2200

EUR/USD Sell 1.3800

EUR/GBP Sell .9425 to .9450

Happy trading

Currencies to FOCUS on March 23

trader — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 19:11:28 +0000

Due to my analysis I expect the NZD to be the strongest followed by USD, GBP, CAD and CHF and weakest pairs are JPY then EUR then AUD.

In all the systems I trade one thing I focus on is buying strongest pairs vs weakest and shorting weakest pairs vs strongest.

Here are the levels I’ll be looking at to buy/sell.
USD/JPY Lightly buy 95.23 and aggressively 94.90 to 94.50
NZD/JPY Buy 53.00 to 52.74 and aggressively 52.50
GBP/JPY Buy 137.12 to 137.00
CAD/JPY Buy 76.62 to 76.50
USD/CHF Buy 1.1200 to 1.1180
AUD/JPY Buy 65.00 and 64.50
USD/CAD Buy 1.2330 to 1.2300
EUR/JPY Buy 129.00
NZD/USD Buy breakout of .5625 or sell breakdown of .5550
GBP/USD Sell 1.4600 and breakdown of 1.4400
EUR/GBP Sell .9450 and breakdown of .9381
AUD/USD Aggressively sell breakdown of .6850 and sell .6950
EUR/USD Aggressively sell breakdown of 1.3550 and 1.3700

Happy trading