Review on 2nd of July

trader — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:11:48 +0000

NEWS: EUR 7:45 AM est Minimum Bid Rate

USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change **

8:30 AM est Unemployment Rate

EUR/USD rallied up heavily after news was released at approx. noon est. pushing the

rally into new weekly highs through resistance. Price is still over the 20 and 50 day MA’s

and has been rallying for several weeks but a pullback may be due some point this week

because of being so overbought. IF price rallies again, watch for possible resistance at

1.4200 (currently weekly high) and at 1.4250 which begins a fib target cluster. IF price

sells off, 1.4056 and 1.4027 begin the next two fib retracement clusters for possible

support.

GBP/USD sold off to make new weekly lows, then found support at the next strong fib

38% retracemetn for the lows of the day. Price is still hovering over the 20 day MA.

IF price sells off and breaks below the 20 day MA, watch for a strong potential down

trending day. The next possible support is is the low of the week at 1.6382 amd the next

fib target of 1.6300. IF price rallies, watch for potential resistance at 1.6563 and 1.6606

which are the current weekly 50/62% retracements.

USD/JPY rallied to the top of the daily trend channel which also combined with the 20

and 50 day MA’s where price found resistance and sold off the rest of the day. Price

is likely to be bearish for the rest of the week because of the strong resistance but must

wait for further confirmation. IF price sells off, 96.00 is a fib retracement and 95.68

is the next longer term fib retracement for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.15 begins

the next resistance peaks from the past several weeks and is also a weekly pivot for

potential resistance.

USD/CHF sold off rapidly after the news release as price sold off to the 2nd buy zone

for the lows of the day and rallied back into the range. 1.0711 was the low of the day

on Wednesday and may again offer support if tested. The next possible strong support

is 1.0636 which beings a multiple support cluster and the low of last week. IF price rallies,

the current fib retracement levels that may offer resistance are 1.0800 and 1.0820.

Review on 1st of July 2009

trader — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:09:58 +0000

NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing PMI

USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment Change**

10:00 AM est ISM Manufacturing PMI

10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales

AUD 9:30 PM est Trade Balance

EUR/USD rallied to last weeks high where price double topped, then sold off to the key

1.4000 level for the current low of the day. If price continues to sell off on Wednesday,

1.4000 may again be light support but use caution as this will be the 3rd time testing this

zone this week. The next possible higher percentage potential support it 1.3950, long term

fib retracement level, bottom on trend channel and half-number.) IF price rallies, watch

for light resistance at the weekly highs again at 1.4138 and at 1.4168 which is the previous

monthly high.

GBP/USD rallied over the top of the sideways consolidation channel then sold off quickly

resulting in the false breakout. This is generally a bearish sign, but IF price rallies to test the

highs of the channel watch for possible resistance at 1.6544, 1.6582 and 1.6620 which are

the current daily fib retracement levels for Tuesday’s sell off. IF ANY OF THESE levels

change after this letter is released they will updated on your trade zones as they appear on

your charts at midnight EST so please take note! If price continues the sell off, the next

possible support are the fib targets 1.6348 and 1.6300.*

USD/JPY sold off late in the JPY session yesterday then quickly rallied to make new weekly

highs as price should close over the 200 day MA. Price is now between the 200 and 20/50

day MA’s and may consolidate before breakout from these support and resistance zones. If

price rallies, 96.57 is last weekly high and 96.96 is the next fib target cluster which may offer

resistance. IF price sells off, 95.77 is a fib retracement cluster and 95.60 is the next longer

term 62% retracement for potential support.

USD/CHF sold off to test the 20 day MA then rallied for the rest of the day and found

resistance the next longer term 38% retracement for the current high of the day. IF price

continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.0900 and 1.0927 which represent fib

retracement levels from the most recent major swing from last week’s high to this week’s

current low. IF price sells off, 1.0800 begins the lowest support cluster which was the low

of the day. IF tested on Wednesday, this may again be support with the next possible

support beginning at 1.0711 (fib target cluster.)

USD/CAD rallied up to last weeks high where price found resistance and consolidated for

the rest of the day where price currently resides. IF price rallies and breaks through this

level, the next possible resistance is 1.1713 and 1.1759 as the fib targets from the most recent

swing. IF price fails at the current highs and sells off, 1.1519 and 1.1488 are the next longer

term fib retracement zones which may be support if tested.

EUR/JPY rallied up to Monday’s and last month’s high where price again found resistance

for the highs of the day and sold off back into the range. Price should close between the 20

and 50 day MA’s. Price closed out the day into a consolidating wedge pattern at the time

of publishing and should breakout nicely. IF price rallies up, the next possible resistance is

136.26 (long term 62% retracement) and 136.94 is a fib target cluster which begins the next

possible resistance zone.

GBP/JPY rallied to a fib target and sold off quickly to near the bottom of the multiday trend

channel. 158.00 is the bottom of the trend channel and 38% fib retracement and 157.16 is

the next 50% fib retracement wher price may find support. IF price rallies, 160.23 and

161.20 are fib targets which are also near the top of the previously mentioned trend channel

which may be resistance if tested.

European forex blog » july

Review on 2nd of July

Review on 1st of July 2009