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Review on Wensday
NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est FOMC Member Dudley speaks
10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 PM est Beige Book
NZD 5:00 PM est Official Cash Rate
RBNZ Rate Statement
AUD 9:30 PM est Building Approvals
EUR/USD found resistance at the weekly highs and sold off rapidly to the long term 38% fib
retracement for the low of the day which were both trading zones. Price is over the 20/50
and 200 day MA’s but has met strong resistance levels as price has failed at this zone multiple
times this month. IF price rallies again, 1.4236 is the 62% retracement of Tuesday and 1.4291
is approx. last week’s high where price may be resistance on Wednesday. IF price sells off,
1.4123 and 1.4068 are the next long term fib retracement levels for potential support.
GBP/USD also rallied to strong resistance which has held since last May and sold off to double
bottom at the weekly lows from Sunday for the low of the day. Price is just above the 20 and
50 day MA which may act as support if tested this week. IF price rallies to retest the previously
mentioned resistance zone, watch for resistance from 1.6566-1.6586 (weekly pivot and last
week’s high) and at 1.6683 and 1.6743 which are fib projection targets from last week’s high/low
swing. If price sells off, 1.6354 is the next long term 38% fib retracement and 1.6311 is last
week’s low which may be support when tested.
USD/JPY sold off after finding strong resistance at the 200 day MA and sold off to just above
the 38% fib retracement from the lows of 2 weeks ago and this week’s high. If price sells off
again to test this mentioned level, 94.00 is the 38% level and 93.56 is the next 50% retracement
for possible support as well. IF price rallies on Wednesday, 95.29 is the weekly high and 96.10
is the next fib target cluster for possible resistance levels.
USD/CAD sold off again to barely make new lows for month as price is again testing the strong
support levels from the lows of late May. Price then quickly was bought and rallied for the rest
of the active trading session before selling back off showing indecision for the immediate price
direction for the rest of the week. IF price does fail at the support level just mentioned and rallies,
1.0930 and 1.0975 are the next longer term fib retracements which may be resistance if tested.
If price sells off again, 1.0669 and 1.0613 are the next fib targets from various intra-weekly
swings for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off briefly to double bottom near the weekly low then rallied heavily to make
new weekly highs just above last week’s high as price found resistance for the high of the day
at the 20 day MA. Price is stuck between strong support at lows from early June and resistance
from the 20 and 50 day MA’s resulting in the consolidating price action. IF price rallies, 1.0800
is approx the weekly high and 1.0818 is the next 62% fib retracement from 2 weeks ago high
to last week’s low for possible resistance. IF price sells off, 1.0634 is the weekly pivot and
begins the very strong potential support from the zone previously mentioned which may be
support and possible chance to get into a nice countertrend rally. IF this level is broken,
however, be aware that a very strong sell off is likely to potentially happen as stops are
triggered from people who have had long positions from the zone for the past several months.