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Review on 28th of May
NEWS: GBP 6:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales
USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims*
10:00 AM est New Home Sales
NZD 6:45 PM est Building Consents
EUR/USD had a slight rally to begin the trading session and found resistance at the highs of Tuesday, double topped, and sold off to make new weekly lows. This is likely indicating a reversal of the USD based pairs, atleast for the time being, as several of the pairs are at their
extremes or the tops or bottoms of their respective long term trend channels indicating the overbought or oversold conditions. IF the eur/usd continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.3813 and 1.3743 as the next 38/50% fib retracements from last week’s low to this week’s high. IF price rallies to test the highs of the week, 1.4051 is the current weekly high and 1.4177 is a fib target for potential resistance.
GBP/USD rallied up above resistance to make new monthly/yearly highs, again, and has sold off to test the previous resistance now as support. Price has been very strong but is also oversold and may need to sell off for the rest of the week. 1.5867 and 1.5800* are the next fib retracements from the most recent valid swing points from last week and may be support if tested on Thursday. IF price continues to rally and make new weekly highs, the next possible resistance is the highs from Wednesday at 1.6086 and the next fib target and weekly pivot at 1.6200.
USD/JPY managed to rally after finding a base for support at a previous swing low point from mid March. Price is likely to rally and retest previous support levels now as resistance. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 95.63 (62% retracement, monthly pivot) and 96.11 (long term fib retracement cluster.) If price continues with the downward momentum, 94.50 is the next 62% retracement from last week’s low to this week’s high and 93.86 IS last week’s low for the next possible support.
USD/CHF also created a base at the bottom of a long term trend channel and is attempting currently to rally and breakout from the consolidation at the bottom of the channel that has occured since the beginning of the week. IF price does breakout to the long side, the
next possible resistance is 1.0960 and 1.1037 (fib retracement levels from multiple longer term swings.) IF price sells off and retests the lows, 1.0813 is the currently low for the week where price has found support multiple times and 1.0717 is a fib target which may offer
support if tested on Thursday or Friday.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows just below the 1.1100 level and rallied to make new daily highs for the day. Price is way oversold and is difficult to determine trend direction but expect a major correction to the long side at some point this week or early next. If price does rally, 1.1287 is a 50% fib retracement and 1.1350 is near the current weekly high and fib retracement and may offer resistance. IF price continues with the strong sell off, 1.1100 was the lows of the day and 1.1000 is the next fib target and whole number for potential support.
Review on 28th of April
NEWS: GBP 6:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales
USD 10:00 AM est CB Consumer Confidence
CHF 11:00 AM est SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
JPY (all day) Bank Holiday
NZD 11:00 PM est NBNZ Business Confidence
EUR/USD found resistnace at a long term trend line last week, resulting in the sell off on Sunday and continued on Monday as price sold off rapidly below the 20 and 50 day MA. The immediate and longer term trend is obviously down, so watch for the fib retracement levels from last week’s high to this week’s low for possible resistance and a chance to reenter the downtrend. The current fib levels from the previously mentioned swing are (1.3100-1.3114), 1.3150 and 1.3185. IF PRICE makes a new lower daily low below 1.3000, then redraw the fibs from the previously mentioned swing to the new daily low and use these levels instead! (VERY IMPORTANT!) IF price continues to sell off, the next current fib target clusters begin at approx.1.2929, and at 1.2885.*
GBP/USD had a lower volatility day as price is stuck between the 20 and 50 day MA’s and pricesold off to make new daily lows, then rallied to find resistance at the 20 day MA. IF price ralliesup again, watch for possible resistance at last week’s high of 1.4772 but IF price breaks this level,this may precede a breakout trending day to the long side, although be cautious of false breakouts.The next resistnace at the fib targets at 1.4912 and 1.5000.* IF price does not break last week’shigh and sells off on Tuesday, watch the 1st buyzone from (1.4416-1.4400) (fib target and lastweek’s low) then at 1.4355 (fib target and major fib retracement level) for your possible support levels.
USD/CHF sold off last week and found ultimate support at the 200 day MA and just below a majortrend line from a long term consolidation wedge pattern. Price quickly rallied 240+ pips resultingfrom the false breakout on the long term consolidating wedge and rallied above the 20 and 50 dayMA’s! Price could be ready to continue the rally and test the TOP of the consolidation wedge if the bullish price action continues. Watch for pullbacks to the retracements from the 1.1500 zoneand 1.1476 and 1.1446 levels for a chance to reenter the uptrend. The next levels where you mayfind potential resistance or a chance to take profits from long positions are 1.1700 and 1.1742!
(fib target clusters and recent highs from previous swings.)
USD/CAD sold off to double bottom at last week’s low then rallied to find resistance at a 38% fibretracement for the ultimate high of the day in the 1.2200 zone at the time of publishing. Price maybe ready to rally again and test the 20 day MA and possibly 50 day MA toward the end of the week.IF price does rally, the next key retracement zones begin at 1.2273 and 1.2320 for possible resistance. IF price SELLS OFF again, the weekly low and low form last week is 1.2075 which MAY be light support but use CAUTION as this will be the 3rd time this level has been tested for support in the last 3 days and is more prone to break through the level resulting in a downtrending bearish type day on Tuesday. The next possible support is low from two week’s ago swing and the monthly-mid point starting from 1.2000-1.1973.