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Review on 27th of May
NEWS: GBP (all day) Nationwide HPI
CAD 8:30 AM est Corporate Profits
USD 10:00 AM est Existing Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Private Capital Expenditure q/q
EUR/USD broke through Monday’s range and sold off rapidly to a fib level then rallied hard back into the consolidation area and is currently testing the highs of the week for resistance for the highs of the day. IF price rallies up, 1.4050 begins a zone containing the current yearly highs and was also the highs of last week as price found resistance at this level and sold off. This level may provide resistance if tested on Wednesday. The next possible resistance is 1.4172 (fib target.) IF price sells off, 1.3871 is a longer term 38% retracement and the low
of Tuesday and 1.3816 (fib retracement cluster and weekly pivot) for your potential support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to test the current weekly highs, sold off to a fib retracement and again has rallied to retest the highs of the week where price currently resides. IF price breaks through this level, the next possible resistance are the fib targets at 1.6034 and 1.6111. IF price fails at this level and sells off, watch for possible support just below 1.5800 and 1.5740. These represent the fib retracement levels from the most recent valid swing and the low of the week, as well.
USD/JPY had a very narrow range and low volatility as price moved less then 50% of its normal daily ATR (Average True Range.) This usually precedes a breakout trending type day so take note for Wednesday or Thursday. Price is also at the bottom of a long range channel seen on a daily chart and may be ready for a correction to the long side after the huge sell off for most of the month of May. IF price does rally, the next possible resistance are 95.25 and 96.10. These levels represent fib retracements and clusters of other various forms of resistance. IF price again sells off, 94.37 is a 62% retracement and last week’s low of 93.86 may be support!
USD/CHF rallied to a fib retracement level and sold off to retest the lows of the week where price has currently found support and rallied back into the daily trading range. Price is very weak and is below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price breaks support you may wish to attempt to short the breakdown of the level. The next possible support will be 1.0743 and 1.0719 that you may use as profit taking levels or potential counter trend opportunities. IF price rallies, from the current weekly low of 1.0813, then watch for possible resistance at 1.0928 (weekly high) and 1.0962 (next 62% retracement and monthly pivot.)
USD/CAD had a strong rally into resistance from a previous swing point from last Friday and sold off rapidly just below last week’s low to make new yearly lows where price currently resides. IF price continues the sell off, the next possible support are the fib targets from 1.1075 and 1.1006. These may be significant support levels but use caution when the prevailing trend is at its extremes. Use the FXPI and FXMM for confirmation when taking countertrend trades. If price finds support and rallies from 1.1170 level, then the current fib retracement levels that may provide resistance are 1.1270 and 1.1322. IF a new lower daily low is made below 1.1170 then redraw your own fibs and disregard the possible resistance levels I just mentioned.
Daily review on 27th
NEWS: GBP 5:30 AM est Current Account
USD 8:30 AM est Personal Spending / Personal Income
9:55 AM est Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
EUR/USD rallied again up to the top of a long range consolidating channel and found resistance for the highs of the day then sold back off into the range. IF price remains in the channel on Friday watch for possible support at approx. 1.3420 as the bottom of the channel and near the lows of the week. The next possible support is the next 50% retracement of 1.3332. If price rallies, 1.3651 is near the highs of Wednesday and Thursday and may again offer resistance. The next possible resistance is 1.3738 as the highs of last weeek and current monthly high.
GBP/USD sold off through support and made new weekly lows as price is also in a slight downward channel and appears to have a short bias correction after the recent two week rally. Price is still over the 20 and 50 day MA but if price drops, the next possible support is 1.4350 as the next major 38% retracement and 1.4300 (weekly pivot and whole number / fib target.) If price reverses and rallies, watch for possible resistance at 1.4600 and 1.4644 as the current fib retracement levels from the weekly high/low. IF PRICE makes a new LOWER LOW then 1.4425, then disregard the fib retracement levels and recalculate them with the new low!
USD/JPY found support at the 20 day MA and rallied to make new weekly highs and is currently testing the current monthly highs for resistance. If price continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 99.76 and 100.50* (fib target and fib target cluster.) IF price finds resistnace at the monthly highs and sells off on Friday, 96.92 is Wednesday’s low and 96.21 is near the CURRENT 50% fib retracement and weekly pivot for the next potential support!
USD/CHF has now bounced from the 200 day MA for multiple days in a row and bounced strongly each time. Price has been in a sideways consolidating channel after the huge sell off last week. IF price sells off again, the 200 day MA near the 1.1180 is also a monthly pivot and may again offer support but be cautious for price to possibly break the support due to the amount of times this zone has beentested previously. If price rallies, 1.1400 is the previous monthly low and was strong support and nowshould provide some sort of resistance if the USD/CHF manages to test this level on Friday.
USD/CAD has also been in a sideways channel for the entire week and been generally non volatile so watch for a chance to buy the breakout of 1.2329 and possible sell the breakdown of 1.2275 as these are the close to the top and bottom of the channel and may provide an opportunity to catch the breakout moves. Thursday should also close as an NR4 inside day which usually precedes a large breakout type day with fairly strong trends so keep an eye out!
Happy trading