European forex blog

EUR/USD had a big rally to open the session, retraced to 50% of the breakout then rallied

again to test the highs of the day.  Currently Price is well above the 20 and 50 day MA’s but

may need to retrace to test support if the uptrend is to continue.  IF price does sell off, 1.4250

is a fib retracement and weekly pivot and 1.4210 is the next long term 50% retracement for

possible support.  IF momentum continues and takes price to test the highs, 1.4376 is the high

for last week and may again be resistance and 1.4441 is the next fib target from Friday’s

swing high/low.

GBP/USD rallied to double top at the previous weekly highs then sold off again, as price is

still contained between the 20 and 50 day MA’s as support and resistance.   IF price rallies

to test the highs, 1.6624 is the high of last week and 1.6700 is the next fib target for potential

resistance for Monday.  If price reverses and sells off, 1.6408 is the long term 62%

retracement and 1.6276 is the low of last week for high possible support for Monday as

well.

USD/JPY sold off on Friday to make new monthly lows then rallied hard in the afternoon

session and has since rallied early Sunday session to test the highs of Friday.  IF price keeps

rallying 95.08 and 95.60 are the 38/50% retracements of the past several weeks where price

may find resistance.   IF price sells off, 93.43 is the low of last week for possible support

if price tests this level on Monday or Tuesday.

USD/CAD also rallied heavily in the afternoon of the Friday session and is approaching the

potentially strong resistance where the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s are clustered.  95.08 and

95.60 are the next 38/50% retracements where price may find resistance.  IF price sells off,

93.43 is the weekly low and weekly pivot for possible support and 92.65 is the next light

potential support point (fib target.)

USD/CHF sold off to major support for the lows of the week, where price is currently

testing again for support just above the monthly pivot.  If price ultimately finds support here

and rallies, 1.0660 and 1.0681 are the next fib retracement levels from different weekly

and multi-weekly swings for possible resistance.  IF price sells off, 1.0507 is a fib target

and 1.0477 is a fib target and weekly pivot for possible support as well.

 

EUR/USD exploded up over the 50 day MA and is approaching the 20 day MA and close to a long term trend line.  Watch closely to see if price manages to rally over the 1.3150 level which was a sell zone and was strong resistance late in the afternoon on Thursday.  IF it does, the next possible resistance is the fib retracement of 1.3200 and the next fib target cluster beginning at 1.3263 and is marked by a sell zone in the trade zones on your charts.  IF price does find resistance at the 1.3150 level and sells off watch for the next 3 buy zones in the trade zones which will indicate possible support as determined by major fib retracements at 1.3055 and 1.3023.*

GBP/USD reversed for the 4th day in a row this week, as price has bounced from the 20 and 50 day MA’s multiple times creating this ranging type of price action.  Price found resistance at the 20 day MA and has since begun to sell off to potentially test the fib retracements from Wednesday’s low and Thursday’s current high. IF price does sell off and test the previously mentioned fib levels watch for a possible bounce and light support at 1.4608, 1.4570 and 1.4527.  If price rallies and breaks from the top of the previously mentioned range, you may find resistance at 1.4811, then the fib targets of 1.4872 and 1.4954.

USD/JPY is stuck in consolidation as price is between the 20 and 50 day MA’s and didn’t manage to make a higher high or lower low then the previous day on rather low volatility.  IF price breaks below the 50 day MA then price may be ready to trend down for the rest of the day, but watch for possible light support at 97.18 and the next STRONG possible support at the zone from (96.73-96.57)  which contains fib targets, retracement, and a weekly pivot all within the same zone.  IF price finds support and rallies, the current potential resistance is the major fib level retracements from the monthly HIGH to the current monthly LOW at 99.05, 99.51 and 100.00.

USD/CAD had a heavy sell off below the 20 day MA and found the lows of the day at the next major 50% fib retracement level.  Price is now below the 20 and 50 day MA’s and still well above the 200 day MA as price found resistance earlier in the week at a major trend line seen on a daily chart so the short term and intermediate term trend bearish.  Watch for support at the 1.2193-1.2175 zone if this level has not been tested on Friday.  This represents a cluster of strong support with major fib retracement, fib target and monthly pivot.  The next possible support is 1.2142.  IF price rallies after the strong sell off from Thursday, 1.2329 is the next 38% fib retracement and previous area of strong support which may now act as possible resistance!  The next fib retracement is 1.2363 for potential resistance.

 

USD/CHF, just like the USD/CAD found strong resistance at the top of a long range trend line which has formed a consolidating wedge pattern seen on a daily chart.  Selling pressure from this level lead to the continuation of the bearish price action in the beginning of the week and eventually the huge sell off on Thursday.  Price is currently below the 50 day MA and above the 20 day MA.  The trend is likely down on Friday, so watch for the fib retracements from current weekly high/low swing for a chance to reenter the trend at 1.1594, 1.1622 and 1.1650.  IF price does continue with the downtrend the next possible is the support cluster beginning at 1.1410* and the next fib target at 1.1354.

Happy trading!!