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Review on Monday of 22nd
NEWS: EUR 4:00 AM est German Ifo Business Climate
EUR/USD rallied to the previously mentioned 1.4000 level for the highs of the week on Friday as price also found resistance at the 20 day MA and sold off back into the range. If price rallies on Monday, this level, 1.4000 may again provide resistance, as well as the next major 50% fib retracement at 1.4043. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is 1.3849 and just above the monthly pivot and could be potentially strong support. The next possible support is 1.3760 (last week’s low.)
GBP/USD rallied hard after finding support at the 20 day MA for multiple days and is currently approaching the monthly and yearly highs. IF price does continue to rally, last week’s high was 1.6621 and 1.6700 is a fib target which may also offer resistance. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is currently 1.6330 and 1.6210 is the next long term range 50% retracement for potential support.
USD/JPY rallied heavily on Thursday before selling off strongly on Friday and closing below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. Price is currently stuck in between a long term wedge consolidation pattern seen on a daily chart as price has bounced from the tops and bottoms of this range for the last several months. If price rallies on Monday, 97.05 and 97.42 are the current 50/62% retracements for last week’s high/low range for possible resistance. If price sells off, 95.63 is approx. last week’s low and 95.02 begins a fib target cluster for potential support.
USD/CAD consolidated for most of the week within a tight range as price attempted to break out of the range on Wednesday resulting in a false breakout and a sell off back into the range. Price is between the 20 and 50 day MA’s. 1.1450 is last week’s high and 1.1540 is a fib target for possible resistance on Monday. IF price sells off, watch for potential support at 1.1255 and 1.1196 (next major fib support levels.)
Review on 22nd of April
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Claimant Count Change / MPC Meeting Minutes
USD 9:00 AM est Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories
EUR/USD had a very slight retracement on low volatility after the large sell off below the 50 day MA on Monday and should result in an NR7 inside day (Narrowest Range of last 7 days with the price action inside of the previous day’s high/low.) These types of days usually proceed a breakout type heavily trending day so use caution! The longer term and intermediate term trend is still bearish, but watch for possible support at the 1.2900 level again which is near the weekly/monthly lows where price has stalled multiple times already. The next major fib support cluster for stronger possible support begins at 1.2786. IF price rallies use the fib retracements from last week’s high to this week’s current low for your possible resistance at 1.3080, 1.3140 and 1.3200.*
GBP/USD also rallied after double bottoming at Monday’s low and retracing to the 38% retracement of the sell off which began last week and also tested the 20 day MA for resistance. If the downtrend is to continue, watch for possible resistnace at the next major fib levels beginning at 1.4767 and 1.4836. 1.4480 is near the lows of the week and if tested may again be support but IF PRICE breaks down
below these levels you may choose to sell the breakout. You may also wait to see if price breaks out below this level, then retraces and uses the previous support now as resistance for a chance to reenter the long term downtrend. Next possible support is 1.4364 and 1.4258 zones which are also the next two buy zones on the chart. (These may also be good areas to take profits from prior short positions.)
USD/JPY reversed from Monday’s selloff and found support at a long term trend line best seen on daily chart, then rallied to the 200 day MA which was the ultimate high of the day. Price is between the 50 and 200 day MA’s so difficult to determine trend direction for Wednesday. IF price rallies, 99.12 is the next major 38% fib and 99.56* is the next STRONG potential resistance at this is a fib cluster which should provide some type of resistance if the FXPI and FXMM’s are in agreement. If price sells off, the daily and weekly lows of 97.67 and the fib target of 97.17 are possible support.
USD/CHF had another low volatility day with 56% movement of its ATR (average true range) and managed to sell off to double bottom at the weekly lows. Price is still above the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s so technically the longer term trend is UP, but if price breaks below the weekly lows at the 1.1650 level, be prepared to possible sell the breakdown, THEN watch for potential support at the next fib levels of 1.1574 and 1.1523. IF price rallies over Tuesday’s high, the next possible resistance is 1.1766 (weak resistance) and then stronger possible resistance at 1.1855 (fib target AND monthly pivot.)
USD/CAD continued the big rally from Monday and rallied upto the 50 day MA and sold off sharply from the 1.2500 level just before the sell zone and major fib retracement. Because of the strong reaction from this level, price actually sold off to make new weekly lows, which may indicate that price is going to be bearish on Wednesday or Thursday. IF price again rallies, the 1.2500 level up to 1.2525 could againt be strong resistance so watch this particular zone. IF the selling pressure from this zone continues the sell off, the next major fib levels for possible support are 1.2300, 1.2243 and 1.2200.*
Happy trading 