European forex blog » 2009

Review on today’s trading day

trader — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 07:35:32 +0000

NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est MPC Meeting Minutes

USD 10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories

2:15 AM est ** FOMC Statement **

EUR/USD rallied up strongly through resistance and made fresh yearly highs after price sold off slightly

for several days in row beginning late last week. The high of the day is currently at the weekly pivot

where price is currently residing and testing again for resistance. Because of the lack of selling at this

level, price may merely be stalling and consolidating before attempting to rally again at some point

during the rest of the week. IF price does rally and pops over the weekly pivot, the next possible

resistance are the fib targets from the weekly high/low at 1.4903 and 1.4953. If price does eventually

sell off from the weekly pivot, the next potential support is the current 62% weekly fib at 1.4693 and

the next long term 38% retracement at 1.4580.

GBP/USD also continued to rally from Monday’s rally and double bottom from the beginning of the

month and found the high of the day at the 20 day MA. The trend bias is still bearish and the next

potential resistance are the next long term 50/62% retracements at 1.6437 and 1.6508. If price sells

off from the 20 day MA and current weekly high, the current weekly 38/50/62% retracements are

1.6293, 1.6363-1.6232 for possible support as price sells off.

USD/JPY continued to sell off after finding resistance at the 20 day MA on Monday and sold off to

the next 62% retracement and monthly and weekly pivots where price is currently testing for support.

If the sell off continues, 90.58 and 90.25 are fib profit targets for possible support. IF price reverses

from the weekly pivot and rallies, 91.72 and 91.91 are the current weekly 50/62% retracement levels

that may offer resistance.

USD/CAD sold off also from the 20 day MA and sold off early in the trading session on Tuesday as

price approaches the previously strong support level where price found support multiple times. IF

price continues to sell off to retest the level, watch for possible support at the 1.0600-1.0587 zone

and the next strong possible support at the fib target cluster at 1.0550. IF price rallies, from Tuesday’s

current low and rallies, 1.0756 and 1.0779 are the current 50/62% retracements for possible resistance

if price rallies.

Review on 7th of September

trader — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 07:28:45 +0000

NEWS: USD (Bank Holiday) Labor day

CAD (Bank Holiday)

EUR/USD sold off to last week’s lows, found support and rallied to a long term trend line that

has contained price multiple times in the last 10 days and sold off. Price is still above 20 and 50

day MA’s and stuck between resistance from the long term trend line. If price sells off again and

breaks the 20 day MA, watch for possible support at the weekly lows near approx. 1.4200.

1.4100 is near the monthly and weekly pivot which may also provide support if tested on

Monday or Tuesday.

GBP/USD rallied to the 50 day MA on Friday and also double topped at the weekly highs and

is currently testing the 1.6400 level again for resistance. IF price rallies over the 50 day MA,

the next potential resistance is the fib target and weekly pivot beginning at 1.6481 and the next fib

target cluster at 1.6522. If price fails at the 1.6400 level and sells off the fib retracement levels

from last week’s range are currently 1.6296, 1.6261 and 1.6226.

USD/JPY sold off last week and found support at the long term lows from early July and rallying

on Thursday/Friday. IF price continues to rally from the strong support, the next potential

resistance are 93.52 and 93.88 as the 50/62% retracements from the high/low swings of the last

two weeks. IF price sells off again to retest the lows of last week, watch for possible support at

92.00 (support level from last week) and 91.37 (fib target.)

USD/CAD had a huge sell off after the NFP news was released and continued to sell off late

afternoon on Friday as price closed below the 20 and 50 day MA’s. IF the selling pressure

forces another sell off early this week, 1.0800 is the next major swing low point for potential

support and 1.0720 is the prior weekly low and fib target as well. IF price finds support and

rallies, the current fib retracements for last week that may offer resistance are 1.0930, 1.0963

and 1.0996.*

USD/CHF rallied hard after the NFP news but still found resistance at the 20 day MA and

previously strong resistance level where price has stalled several times in the past 10 days. IF

price again rallies on Monday, the next potential resistance is 1.0695 (weekly pivot and previous

swing high point) and 1.0714 (high from two weeks ago.) IF price sells off, 1.0550 has been

strong also been strong support in the past several weeks and may again provide support if

tested early this week.

Review on Monday

trader — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 10:06:35 +0000

NEWS: EUR 5:00 AM est Industrial New Orders

CAD 8:30 AM est Core Retail Sales

NZD 11:00 PM est Inflation Expectations

EUR/USD had a big rally to open the session, retraced to 50% of the breakout then rallied

again to test the highs of the day. Currently Price is well above the 20 and 50 day MA’s but

may need to retrace to test support if the uptrend is to continue. IF price does sell off, 1.4250

is a fib retracement and weekly pivot and 1.4210 is the next long term 50% retracement for

possible support. IF momentum continues and takes price to test the highs, 1.4376 is the high

for last week and may again be resistance and 1.4441 is the next fib target from Friday’s

swing high/low.

GBP/USD rallied to double top at the previous weekly highs then sold off again, as price is

still contained between the 20 and 50 day MA’s as support and resistance. IF price rallies

to test the highs, 1.6624 is the high of last week and 1.6700 is the next fib target for potential

resistance for Monday. If price reverses and sells off, 1.6408 is the long term 62%

retracement and 1.6276 is the low of last week for high possible support for Monday as

well.

USD/JPY sold off on Friday to make new monthly lows then rallied hard in the afternoon

session and has since rallied early Sunday session to test the highs of Friday. IF price keeps

rallying 95.08 and 95.60 are the 38/50% retracements of the past several weeks where price

may find resistance. IF price sells off, 93.43 is the low of last week for possible support

if price tests this level on Monday or Tuesday.

USD/CAD also rallied heavily in the afternoon of the Friday session and is approaching the

potentially strong resistance where the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s are clustered. 95.08 and

95.60 are the next 38/50% retracements where price may find resistance. IF price sells off,

93.43 is the weekly low and weekly pivot for possible support and 92.65 is the next light

potential support point (fib target.)

USD/CHF sold off to major support for the lows of the week, where price is currently

testing again for support just above the monthly pivot. If price ultimately finds support here

and rallies, 1.0660 and 1.0681 are the next fib retracement levels from different weekly

and multi-weekly swings for possible resistance. IF price sells off, 1.0507 is a fib target

and 1.0477 is a fib target and weekly pivot for possible support as well.

Review on Wensday

trader — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 03:54:47 +0000

NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders

8:30 AM est FOMC Member Dudley speaks

10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories

2:00 PM est Beige Book

NZD 5:00 PM est Official Cash Rate

RBNZ Rate Statement

AUD 9:30 PM est Building Approvals

EUR/USD found resistance at the weekly highs and sold off rapidly to the long term 38% fib

retracement for the low of the day which were both trading zones. Price is over the 20/50

and 200 day MA’s but has met strong resistance levels as price has failed at this zone multiple

times this month. IF price rallies again, 1.4236 is the 62% retracement of Tuesday and 1.4291

is approx. last week’s high where price may be resistance on Wednesday. IF price sells off,

1.4123 and 1.4068 are the next long term fib retracement levels for potential support.

GBP/USD also rallied to strong resistance which has held since last May and sold off to double

bottom at the weekly lows from Sunday for the low of the day. Price is just above the 20 and

50 day MA which may act as support if tested this week. IF price rallies to retest the previously

mentioned resistance zone, watch for resistance from 1.6566-1.6586 (weekly pivot and last

week’s high) and at 1.6683 and 1.6743 which are fib projection targets from last week’s high/low

swing. If price sells off, 1.6354 is the next long term 38% fib retracement and 1.6311 is last

week’s low which may be support when tested.

USD/JPY sold off after finding strong resistance at the 200 day MA and sold off to just above

the 38% fib retracement from the lows of 2 weeks ago and this week’s high. If price sells off

again to test this mentioned level, 94.00 is the 38% level and 93.56 is the next 50% retracement

for possible support as well. IF price rallies on Wednesday, 95.29 is the weekly high and 96.10

is the next fib target cluster for possible resistance levels.

USD/CAD sold off again to barely make new lows for month as price is again testing the strong

support levels from the lows of late May. Price then quickly was bought and rallied for the rest

of the active trading session before selling back off showing indecision for the immediate price

direction for the rest of the week. IF price does fail at the support level just mentioned and rallies,

1.0930 and 1.0975 are the next longer term fib retracements which may be resistance if tested.

If price sells off again, 1.0669 and 1.0613 are the next fib targets from various intra-weekly

swings for possible support.

USD/CHF sold off briefly to double bottom near the weekly low then rallied heavily to make

new weekly highs just above last week’s high as price found resistance for the high of the day

at the 20 day MA. Price is stuck between strong support at lows from early June and resistance

from the 20 and 50 day MA’s resulting in the consolidating price action. IF price rallies, 1.0800

is approx the weekly high and 1.0818 is the next 62% fib retracement from 2 weeks ago high

to last week’s low for possible resistance. IF price sells off, 1.0634 is the weekly pivot and

begins the very strong potential support from the zone previously mentioned which may be

support and possible chance to get into a nice countertrend rally. IF this level is broken,

however, be aware that a very strong sell off is likely to potentially happen as stops are

triggered from people who have had long positions from the zone for the past several months.

Review on 21st

trader — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:03:02 +0000

NEWS: CAD 9:00 AM est BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate

USD 10:00 AM est Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

AUD 9:30 PM est CPI

EUR/USD rallied up to make new monthly and 10 day highs and is approaching last

month’s high. The high of the day for Monday was a long range fib target and the next

possible resistance is the next fib target for this particular swing at 1.4317. The next

possible resistance is 1.4361. IF price sells off, 1.4133 is approx. the 62% retracement

for the week and 1.4089 is the next long term 38% retracement for potential support.

GBP/USD rallied up strongly after finding support at the 20 day MA and also made

new 10 day highs as price continued from last week’s rally. IF price keeps rallying up,

the next fib targets from Friday’s low to this week’s current high are 1.6655 and 1.6721.

IF price sells off, 1.6407 and 1.6374 are the 50/62% retracements from the previously

mentioned swing.

USD/JPY rallied to the 20 day MA and found resistance for the highs of the day then

sold off rapidly to make new daily/weekly lows. Price is still below the 20/50 and 200

day MA’s after rallying up to and correcting itself from the previous news related huge

sell off from weeks ago. Price is making lower lows in price at the time of publication.

IF price keeps selling off, 93.26 and 92.91 are the next major 50/62% retracements

for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.00 begins the next major possible resistance

zone.

USD/CHF had a steep sell off to open the trading session then consolidated for the

rest of the day. IF price continues to drop, as price appears to be bearish for the

early part of the week, the next possible support is 1.0597 and 1.0560. IF price

rallies, 1.0755 is the current 62% retracement from last Friday’s high to this week’s

current low and 1.0798 is the next major 50% retracement for possible resistance.

USD/CAD sold off below last week’s low and strong support to make new monthly

lows and found the low of the day at the fib target from last Wednesday’s move. IF

price keeps selling off, 1.0977 is the next fib target from the previously mentioned

swing and 1.0786 is last month’s low which may be strong potential support if tested

this week. IF price rallies, 1.1200 is the beginning of the next stronger possible

resistance cluster and 1.1267 is the next long term 38% retracement.

Review on 2nd of July

trader — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:11:48 +0000

NEWS: EUR 7:45 AM est Minimum Bid Rate

USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change **

8:30 AM est Unemployment Rate

EUR/USD rallied up heavily after news was released at approx. noon est. pushing the

rally into new weekly highs through resistance. Price is still over the 20 and 50 day MA’s

and has been rallying for several weeks but a pullback may be due some point this week

because of being so overbought. IF price rallies again, watch for possible resistance at

1.4200 (currently weekly high) and at 1.4250 which begins a fib target cluster. IF price

sells off, 1.4056 and 1.4027 begin the next two fib retracement clusters for possible

support.

GBP/USD sold off to make new weekly lows, then found support at the next strong fib

38% retracemetn for the lows of the day. Price is still hovering over the 20 day MA.

IF price sells off and breaks below the 20 day MA, watch for a strong potential down

trending day. The next possible support is is the low of the week at 1.6382 amd the next

fib target of 1.6300. IF price rallies, watch for potential resistance at 1.6563 and 1.6606

which are the current weekly 50/62% retracements.

USD/JPY rallied to the top of the daily trend channel which also combined with the 20

and 50 day MA’s where price found resistance and sold off the rest of the day. Price

is likely to be bearish for the rest of the week because of the strong resistance but must

wait for further confirmation. IF price sells off, 96.00 is a fib retracement and 95.68

is the next longer term fib retracement for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.15 begins

the next resistance peaks from the past several weeks and is also a weekly pivot for

potential resistance.

USD/CHF sold off rapidly after the news release as price sold off to the 2nd buy zone

for the lows of the day and rallied back into the range. 1.0711 was the low of the day

on Wednesday and may again offer support if tested. The next possible strong support

is 1.0636 which beings a multiple support cluster and the low of last week. IF price rallies,

the current fib retracement levels that may offer resistance are 1.0800 and 1.0820.

Review on 1st of July 2009

trader — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:09:58 +0000

NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing PMI

USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment Change**

10:00 AM est ISM Manufacturing PMI

10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales

AUD 9:30 PM est Trade Balance

EUR/USD rallied to last weeks high where price double topped, then sold off to the key

1.4000 level for the current low of the day. If price continues to sell off on Wednesday,

1.4000 may again be light support but use caution as this will be the 3rd time testing this

zone this week. The next possible higher percentage potential support it 1.3950, long term

fib retracement level, bottom on trend channel and half-number.) IF price rallies, watch

for light resistance at the weekly highs again at 1.4138 and at 1.4168 which is the previous

monthly high.

GBP/USD rallied over the top of the sideways consolidation channel then sold off quickly

resulting in the false breakout. This is generally a bearish sign, but IF price rallies to test the

highs of the channel watch for possible resistance at 1.6544, 1.6582 and 1.6620 which are

the current daily fib retracement levels for Tuesday’s sell off. IF ANY OF THESE levels

change after this letter is released they will updated on your trade zones as they appear on

your charts at midnight EST so please take note! If price continues the sell off, the next

possible support are the fib targets 1.6348 and 1.6300.*

USD/JPY sold off late in the JPY session yesterday then quickly rallied to make new weekly

highs as price should close over the 200 day MA. Price is now between the 200 and 20/50

day MA’s and may consolidate before breakout from these support and resistance zones. If

price rallies, 96.57 is last weekly high and 96.96 is the next fib target cluster which may offer

resistance. IF price sells off, 95.77 is a fib retracement cluster and 95.60 is the next longer

term 62% retracement for potential support.

USD/CHF sold off to test the 20 day MA then rallied for the rest of the day and found

resistance the next longer term 38% retracement for the current high of the day. IF price

continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.0900 and 1.0927 which represent fib

retracement levels from the most recent major swing from last week’s high to this week’s

current low. IF price sells off, 1.0800 begins the lowest support cluster which was the low

of the day. IF tested on Wednesday, this may again be support with the next possible

support beginning at 1.0711 (fib target cluster.)

USD/CAD rallied up to last weeks high where price found resistance and consolidated for

the rest of the day where price currently resides. IF price rallies and breaks through this

level, the next possible resistance is 1.1713 and 1.1759 as the fib targets from the most recent

swing. IF price fails at the current highs and sells off, 1.1519 and 1.1488 are the next longer

term fib retracement zones which may be support if tested.

EUR/JPY rallied up to Monday’s and last month’s high where price again found resistance

for the highs of the day and sold off back into the range. Price should close between the 20

and 50 day MA’s. Price closed out the day into a consolidating wedge pattern at the time

of publishing and should breakout nicely. IF price rallies up, the next possible resistance is

136.26 (long term 62% retracement) and 136.94 is a fib target cluster which begins the next

possible resistance zone.

GBP/JPY rallied to a fib target and sold off quickly to near the bottom of the multiday trend

channel. 158.00 is the bottom of the trend channel and 38% fib retracement and 157.16 is

the next 50% fib retracement wher price may find support. IF price rallies, 160.23 and

161.20 are fib targets which are also near the top of the previously mentioned trend channel

which may be resistance if tested.

Review on Monday of 22nd

trader — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:59:21 +0000

NEWS: EUR 4:00 AM est German Ifo Business Climate

EUR/USD rallied to the previously mentioned 1.4000 level for the highs of the week on Friday as price also found resistance at the 20 day MA and sold off back into the range. If price rallies on Monday, this level, 1.4000 may again provide resistance, as well as the next major 50% fib retracement at 1.4043. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is 1.3849 and just above the monthly pivot and could be potentially strong support. The next possible support is 1.3760 (last week’s low.)

GBP/USD rallied hard after finding support at the 20 day MA for multiple days and is currently approaching the monthly and yearly highs. IF price does continue to rally, last week’s high was 1.6621 and 1.6700 is a fib target which may also offer resistance. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is currently 1.6330 and 1.6210 is the next long term range 50% retracement for potential support.

USD/JPY rallied heavily on Thursday before selling off strongly on Friday and closing below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. Price is currently stuck in between a long term wedge consolidation pattern seen on a daily chart as price has bounced from the tops and bottoms of this range for the last several months. If price rallies on Monday, 97.05 and 97.42 are the current 50/62% retracements for last week’s high/low range for possible resistance. If price sells off, 95.63 is approx. last week’s low and 95.02 begins a fib target cluster for potential support.

USD/CAD consolidated for most of the week within a tight range as price attempted to break out of the range on Wednesday resulting in a false breakout and a sell off back into the range. Price is between the 20 and 50 day MA’s. 1.1450 is last week’s high and 1.1540 is a fib target for possible resistance on Monday. IF price sells off, watch for potential support at 1.1255 and 1.1196 (next major fib support levels.)

Review on 2nd of June

trader — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:12:05 +0000

NEWS: AUD 12:30 AM est Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement

9:30 PM est GDP

EUR 5:00 AM est Unemployment Rate

USD 10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales

(all day) Total Vehicle Sales

EUR/USD rallied to make new monthly and yearly highs above the previous resistance as a

weak USD drove many of the major pairs on Monday. Price is testing a previous swing

point from late 2008 in the 1.4250-1.4300 level and may need some consolidation before

this level is penetrated. IF price does rally on Tuesday, 1.4286 is a fib target and weekly

pivot, then 1.4400-1.4420 is approx. the next possible resistance cluster. IF price reverses

and sells off, the next possible support are the fibs from last week’s low to this week’s high

at 1.4073, 1.4020 and 1.3967.

GBP/USD also had a big rally as price broke through previously strong resistance to also

make new yearly highs and is testing the resistance from a previous swing point from late

October of last year. The next possible resistance is 1.6616 and 1.6689 as fib targets

from the day’s high/low range. IF price sells back off to test the previous resistance now

as support, watch 1.6303 and 1.6220 for potential support zones.

USD/JPY trended up for the entire day as price moved 185% of its normal ATR (Average

True Range) and is testing the 20 and 200 day MA’s for possible resistance. IF price

continues to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high which may provide solid resistance the first

time tested unless the FXMM and FXPI are at their extremes. The next possible resistance

is 97.71 (fib target and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, the fib retracement levels for

Monday’s huge up move that may be support are currently 95.91, 95.63 and 95.35.

USD/CHF also sold off to make new monthly lows and is approaching the yearly lows,

then rallied back into the days range. Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s

and has sold off for most of the month but could be ready for a correction sometime

during the early part of the week as price is testing the previous yearly lows. IF price does

sell off to test these levels, watch for possible support at 1.0600 and 1.0560. These are

fib targets that are currently located in the previous swing low area then I was speaking of.

IF price reverses and rallies, the current fib retracements from last week’s high to Monday’s

current low are 1.0746, 1.0786 and 1.0826 that may provide resistance.

USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows as well and found support at the 1.0800 level

as price then rallied back up above Sunday’s high. Price is still extrememly weak but is

not near any other major swing low levels which may indicate that price will continue to

make new yearly lows at some point during the week. IF so, 1.0800 as Monday’s low

may be support and 1.0729 is the beginning of the next fib target cluster. IF price rallies,

the fib retracement cluster levels that may be resistance if tested are currently 1.1000,

1.1070 and 1.1137.

Review on 28th of May

trader — Thu, 28 May 2009 08:16:34 +0000

NEWS: GBP 6:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales

USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders

8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims*

10:00 AM est New Home Sales

NZD 6:45 PM est Building Consents

EUR/USD had a slight rally to begin the trading session and found resistance at the highs of Tuesday, double topped, and sold off to make new weekly lows. This is likely indicating a reversal of the USD based pairs, atleast for the time being, as several of the pairs are at their

extremes or the tops or bottoms of their respective long term trend channels indicating the overbought or oversold conditions. IF the eur/usd continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.3813 and 1.3743 as the next 38/50% fib retracements from last week’s low to this week’s high. IF price rallies to test the highs of the week, 1.4051 is the current weekly high and 1.4177 is a fib target for potential resistance.

GBP/USD rallied up above resistance to make new monthly/yearly highs, again, and has sold off to test the previous resistance now as support. Price has been very strong but is also oversold and may need to sell off for the rest of the week. 1.5867 and 1.5800* are the next fib retracements from the most recent valid swing points from last week and may be support if tested on Thursday. IF price continues to rally and make new weekly highs, the next possible resistance is the highs from Wednesday at 1.6086 and the next fib target and weekly pivot at 1.6200.

USD/JPY managed to rally after finding a base for support at a previous swing low point from mid March. Price is likely to rally and retest previous support levels now as resistance. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 95.63 (62% retracement, monthly pivot) and 96.11 (long term fib retracement cluster.) If price continues with the downward momentum, 94.50 is the next 62% retracement from last week’s low to this week’s high and 93.86 IS last week’s low for the next possible support.

USD/CHF also created a base at the bottom of a long term trend channel and is attempting currently to rally and breakout from the consolidation at the bottom of the channel that has occured since the beginning of the week. IF price does breakout to the long side, the

next possible resistance is 1.0960 and 1.1037 (fib retracement levels from multiple longer term swings.) IF price sells off and retests the lows, 1.0813 is the currently low for the week where price has found support multiple times and 1.0717 is a fib target which may offer

support if tested on Thursday or Friday.

USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows just below the 1.1100 level and rallied to make new daily highs for the day. Price is way oversold and is difficult to determine trend direction but expect a major correction to the long side at some point this week or early next. If price does rally, 1.1287 is a 50% fib retracement and 1.1350 is near the current weekly high and fib retracement and may offer resistance. IF price continues with the strong sell off, 1.1100 was the lows of the day and 1.1000 is the next fib target and whole number for potential support.