European forex blog » 2

Review on 2nd of July

trader — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:11:48 +0000

NEWS: EUR 7:45 AM est Minimum Bid Rate

USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change **

8:30 AM est Unemployment Rate

EUR/USD rallied up heavily after news was released at approx. noon est. pushing the

rally into new weekly highs through resistance. Price is still over the 20 and 50 day MA’s

and has been rallying for several weeks but a pullback may be due some point this week

because of being so overbought. IF price rallies again, watch for possible resistance at

1.4200 (currently weekly high) and at 1.4250 which begins a fib target cluster. IF price

sells off, 1.4056 and 1.4027 begin the next two fib retracement clusters for possible

support.

GBP/USD sold off to make new weekly lows, then found support at the next strong fib

38% retracemetn for the lows of the day. Price is still hovering over the 20 day MA.

IF price sells off and breaks below the 20 day MA, watch for a strong potential down

trending day. The next possible support is is the low of the week at 1.6382 amd the next

fib target of 1.6300. IF price rallies, watch for potential resistance at 1.6563 and 1.6606

which are the current weekly 50/62% retracements.

USD/JPY rallied to the top of the daily trend channel which also combined with the 20

and 50 day MA’s where price found resistance and sold off the rest of the day. Price

is likely to be bearish for the rest of the week because of the strong resistance but must

wait for further confirmation. IF price sells off, 96.00 is a fib retracement and 95.68

is the next longer term fib retracement for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.15 begins

the next resistance peaks from the past several weeks and is also a weekly pivot for

potential resistance.

USD/CHF sold off rapidly after the news release as price sold off to the 2nd buy zone

for the lows of the day and rallied back into the range. 1.0711 was the low of the day

on Wednesday and may again offer support if tested. The next possible strong support

is 1.0636 which beings a multiple support cluster and the low of last week. IF price rallies,

the current fib retracement levels that may offer resistance are 1.0800 and 1.0820.

Review on 2nd of June

trader — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:12:05 +0000

NEWS: AUD 12:30 AM est Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement

9:30 PM est GDP

EUR 5:00 AM est Unemployment Rate

USD 10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales

(all day) Total Vehicle Sales

EUR/USD rallied to make new monthly and yearly highs above the previous resistance as a

weak USD drove many of the major pairs on Monday. Price is testing a previous swing

point from late 2008 in the 1.4250-1.4300 level and may need some consolidation before

this level is penetrated. IF price does rally on Tuesday, 1.4286 is a fib target and weekly

pivot, then 1.4400-1.4420 is approx. the next possible resistance cluster. IF price reverses

and sells off, the next possible support are the fibs from last week’s low to this week’s high

at 1.4073, 1.4020 and 1.3967.

GBP/USD also had a big rally as price broke through previously strong resistance to also

make new yearly highs and is testing the resistance from a previous swing point from late

October of last year. The next possible resistance is 1.6616 and 1.6689 as fib targets

from the day’s high/low range. IF price sells back off to test the previous resistance now

as support, watch 1.6303 and 1.6220 for potential support zones.

USD/JPY trended up for the entire day as price moved 185% of its normal ATR (Average

True Range) and is testing the 20 and 200 day MA’s for possible resistance. IF price

continues to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high which may provide solid resistance the first

time tested unless the FXMM and FXPI are at their extremes. The next possible resistance

is 97.71 (fib target and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, the fib retracement levels for

Monday’s huge up move that may be support are currently 95.91, 95.63 and 95.35.

USD/CHF also sold off to make new monthly lows and is approaching the yearly lows,

then rallied back into the days range. Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s

and has sold off for most of the month but could be ready for a correction sometime

during the early part of the week as price is testing the previous yearly lows. IF price does

sell off to test these levels, watch for possible support at 1.0600 and 1.0560. These are

fib targets that are currently located in the previous swing low area then I was speaking of.

IF price reverses and rallies, the current fib retracements from last week’s high to Monday’s

current low are 1.0746, 1.0786 and 1.0826 that may provide resistance.

USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows as well and found support at the 1.0800 level

as price then rallied back up above Sunday’s high. Price is still extrememly weak but is

not near any other major swing low levels which may indicate that price will continue to

make new yearly lows at some point during the week. IF so, 1.0800 as Monday’s low

may be support and 1.0729 is the beginning of the next fib target cluster. IF price rallies,

the fib retracement cluster levels that may be resistance if tested are currently 1.1000,

1.1070 and 1.1137.

Review on 2nd April

trader — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 08:18:45 +0000

NEWS: * G20 Meetings ALL DAY *

GBP 2:00 AM est Nationwide HPI

CHF 4:30 AM est Gov Board Member Hildebrand speaks

EUR 7:45 AM est Minimum Bid Rate

8:30 AM est ECB Press Conference

USD 8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims

EUR/USD had a lower volatility inside day as price bounced from the 20 day MA and failed to test Tuesday’s high for resistance. If price rallies, 1.3351 is the next 38% retracement and weekly high and 1.3425 is a 50% retracement and weekly pivot for potential resistance. IF price sells off and tests the 20 day MA again for support, this is currently located near the next long range 50% fib retracement and low of the week near the 1.3100 level, then 1.2947 is the next major 62% retracement for strong support, although unlikely to be tested today.

GBP/USD has trended up for the entire week after finding support at the 20 day MA at the beginning of the week. IF price is to continue to rally for Thursday, the next possible resistance is 1.4521 as the 62% retracement from last week’s high and this week’s current low. 1.4643 is the next weekly pivot and swing level for light resistance. IF price reverses and sells off, use the fib level from Wednesday’s HIGH to the weekly low at 1.4109 for your support points for tomorrow as price is currently making higher highs for the day at the time of publishing. TAKE specific note of the 50/62% retracements as these tend to have the most merit.

USD/JPY rallied and found resistance at the 200 day MA as price briefly rallied over a multi-week trend line, but quickly sold off each time back into the range. Price is stuck between the 200 and the 20 day MA’s. Price may be ready to sell off for the rest of the week due to the strong selling pressue at the 200 day MA. If it does, the current weekly fib levels which may offer support are 97.71 and 97.37 so use caution. IF price rallies, March’s high of 99.68 may offer resistance and 100.00 is a major whole number which tends to be resistance if the level has not been tested in a while.

USD/CHF rallied up to the 20 day MA, found resistance and sold off for the 3rd day in a row. Price is contained between the 20 and 200 day MA’s. Price is still somewhat bullish, but has also found strong resistance at the MA. IF PRICE does sell off on Thursday, the next weekly fib levels for potential support are 1.1354 (also low of the week) and 1.1308. IF price rallies through the 20 day MA, watch for a breakout and a strong uptrending day. You may find resistance at 1.1600 (fib target and whole number) and 1.1657 for strong resistance!

USD/CAD retraced and sold off after 3 straight strong bullish days in a row as price rallied hard over the 20 day MA and is currently selling back off to test the MA for support. The trend is still UP but may need some more retracement before the rally is to continue. IF price pulls back on Thursday, watch for support at the next major fib levels of 1.2513, 1.2451 and 1.2390.* IF price finds support and RALLIES, the next resistance to watch for is 1.2798 and 1.2879 for light resistance as the next intra-weekly fib targets.

Happy trading