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Review on 1st of July 2009
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing PMI
USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment Change**
10:00 AM est ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Trade Balance
EUR/USD rallied to last weeks high where price double topped, then sold off to the key
1.4000 level for the current low of the day. If price continues to sell off on Wednesday,
1.4000 may again be light support but use caution as this will be the 3rd time testing this
zone this week. The next possible higher percentage potential support it 1.3950, long term
fib retracement level, bottom on trend channel and half-number.) IF price rallies, watch
for light resistance at the weekly highs again at 1.4138 and at 1.4168 which is the previous
monthly high.
GBP/USD rallied over the top of the sideways consolidation channel then sold off quickly
resulting in the false breakout. This is generally a bearish sign, but IF price rallies to test the
highs of the channel watch for possible resistance at 1.6544, 1.6582 and 1.6620 which are
the current daily fib retracement levels for Tuesday’s sell off. IF ANY OF THESE levels
change after this letter is released they will updated on your trade zones as they appear on
your charts at midnight EST so please take note! If price continues the sell off, the next
possible support are the fib targets 1.6348 and 1.6300.*
USD/JPY sold off late in the JPY session yesterday then quickly rallied to make new weekly
highs as price should close over the 200 day MA. Price is now between the 200 and 20/50
day MA’s and may consolidate before breakout from these support and resistance zones. If
price rallies, 96.57 is last weekly high and 96.96 is the next fib target cluster which may offer
resistance. IF price sells off, 95.77 is a fib retracement cluster and 95.60 is the next longer
term 62% retracement for potential support.
USD/CHF sold off to test the 20 day MA then rallied for the rest of the day and found
resistance the next longer term 38% retracement for the current high of the day. IF price
continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.0900 and 1.0927 which represent fib
retracement levels from the most recent major swing from last week’s high to this week’s
current low. IF price sells off, 1.0800 begins the lowest support cluster which was the low
of the day. IF tested on Wednesday, this may again be support with the next possible
support beginning at 1.0711 (fib target cluster.)
USD/CAD rallied up to last weeks high where price found resistance and consolidated for
the rest of the day where price currently resides. IF price rallies and breaks through this
level, the next possible resistance is 1.1713 and 1.1759 as the fib targets from the most recent
swing. IF price fails at the current highs and sells off, 1.1519 and 1.1488 are the next longer
term fib retracement zones which may be support if tested.
EUR/JPY rallied up to Monday’s and last month’s high where price again found resistance
for the highs of the day and sold off back into the range. Price should close between the 20
and 50 day MA’s. Price closed out the day into a consolidating wedge pattern at the time
of publishing and should breakout nicely. IF price rallies up, the next possible resistance is
136.26 (long term 62% retracement) and 136.94 is a fib target cluster which begins the next
possible resistance zone.
GBP/JPY rallied to a fib target and sold off quickly to near the bottom of the multiday trend
channel. 158.00 is the bottom of the trend channel and 38% fib retracement and 157.16 is
the next 50% fib retracement wher price may find support. IF price rallies, 160.23 and
161.20 are fib targets which are also near the top of the previously mentioned trend channel
which may be resistance if tested.
Review on Friday
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing PMI
USD 9:55 AM est Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM est ISM Manufacturing PMI
EUR/USD rallied to double top at the high of two weeks ago then sold off rapidly to find supportat 20 day MA and the 38% fib retracement from the low of two weeks ago and high of this week.The high was also just outside of the long term trend channel seen on a daily chart, which may indicated that price is potentially going to bearish on Friday. IF price does sell off, watch for support at 1st buy zone from 1.3150-1.3128 (major fib cluster/monthly pivot) and the next major 62% fib retracement at 1.3076. IF price rallies, 1.3426 is the beginning of the next fib target cluster, as well as 1.3478 for the next potential resistance.
GBP/USD also rallied to a fib target and sell zone then sold off rapidly to test and find support at the 20 day MA for the current daily lows. IF price sells off, the next possible support levels will be 1.4682 and 1.4625-1.4607 (weekly pivot/62% fib retracement.) IF price continues with the longer term rally, the next possible resistance are the weekly highs at approx. 1.4945 and at 1.5000.*
USD/JPY continued with the weekly strong rally as price found resistance at the 200 and 20 day MA’s for the high of the day. The immediate trend is still bullish, and if price does continue to rally watch for possible resistance at the next fib retracement level at 99.22 and the monthly high and fib target of 99.66. IF price sells off, watch for a chance to reenter the uptrend at the fib retracement levels of (98.08-97.87) and the next longer term 38% fib retracement of 97.29.
USD/CAD continued with the long term down trend and made new monthly lows as price is now approaching the 200 day MA. If the downtrend is to continue, watch for potential resistance and a chance to reenter the downtrend at the key fib retracement levels at 1.2063 and 1.2107.* IF price does continue to sell off, the current possible support levels are the weekly pivot and fib target beginning at 1.1791 and the next major fib target at approx. 1.1706.
USD/CHF sold off below the 200 day MA, then rallied strongly to close over the MA which has
acted as strong support since mid-march. Price is still in a long term consolidating wedge pattern best seen on a long term, or daily chart. If price rallies, the 1.1500 zone contains is currently very strong potential resistance is this level is tested on Friday. The next possible resistance is 1.1560. IF price sells off, and tests the weekly lows, watch for potential support at 1.1200 and 1.1159.* These levels are fib targets and the previous monthly low (1.1161)