Review on Monday of 22nd
NEWS: EUR 4:00 AM est German Ifo Business Climate
EUR/USD rallied to the previously mentioned 1.4000 level for the highs of the week on Friday as price also found resistance at the 20 day MA and sold off back into the range. If price rallies on Monday, this level, 1.4000 may again provide resistance, as well as the next major 50% fib retracement at 1.4043. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is 1.3849 and just above the monthly pivot and could be potentially strong support. The next possible support is 1.3760 (last week’s low.)
GBP/USD rallied hard after finding support at the 20 day MA for multiple days and is currently approaching the monthly and yearly highs. IF price does continue to rally, last week’s high was 1.6621 and 1.6700 is a fib target which may also offer resistance. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is currently 1.6330 and 1.6210 is the next long term range 50% retracement for potential support.
USD/JPY rallied heavily on Thursday before selling off strongly on Friday and closing below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. Price is currently stuck in between a long term wedge consolidation pattern seen on a daily chart as price has bounced from the tops and bottoms of this range for the last several months. If price rallies on Monday, 97.05 and 97.42 are the current 50/62% retracements for last week’s high/low range for possible resistance. If price sells off, 95.63 is approx. last week’s low and 95.02 begins a fib target cluster for potential support.
USD/CAD consolidated for most of the week within a tight range as price attempted to break out of the range on Wednesday resulting in a false breakout and a sell off back into the range. Price is between the 20 and 50 day MA’s. 1.1450 is last week’s high and 1.1540 is a fib target for possible resistance on Monday. IF price sells off, watch for potential support at 1.1255 and 1.1196 (next major fib support levels.)
Review on today
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est PPI Input
CAD 7:00 AM est Employment Change
USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change *
Unemployment Rate *
EUR/USD sold off to make new weekly lows and found support at the 50% retracement level
from last week’s low to this week’s current high for the ultimate low of the day. Price has now
found strong resistance near the levels I discussed yesterday which are price level peaks from
late December. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support is the low of Thursday
at 1.4065 and 1.4000 (62% retracement.) IF price rallies, 1.4237 is the current weekly 62%
retracement for light possible resistance and 1.4338 is the current weekly high for stronger
possible resistance.
GBP/USD continued from Wednesday’s sell off and found support at the 62% retracement
of the last two week’s high/low for the current low of the day. IF the sell off continues, the next
possible support is 1.6000 and 1.5886* (strong fib cluster.) IF price rallies to retest the
current weekly range, the fib retracements which may offer resistance are 1.6306, 1.6373 and
1.6440.
USD/JPY has attempted to break from the long term consolidation pattern and rallied above
the weekly highs after the news was released, injecting volume into the markets. This may be
a false breakout as price has not conviningly rallied to new highs, so use caution. IF price does
continue to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high and 97.70 is a fib target for potential resistance levels.
IF price sells off, 96.00, 95.70 and 95.41 are the weekly fib retracements which may be support
if tested on Friday.
USD/CHF rallied up to make new weekly highs but quickly sold back off to consolidate within
the trading range of the week. Price has also met strong support and may consolidate more or
need to rally before breaking through to new lows. IF price does rally, the next possible
resistance is Thursday’s high near approx. 1.0770 then 1.0815 (next longer term 62% retracement.)
IF price sells off, 1.0600 has been strong support multiple times and may again be support if
tested on Friday and 1.0560 is a fib target and weekly pivot.
USD/CAD reversed from yesterday’s huge rally when CAD news was released and found the
ultimate lows of the day at the weekly 62% retracement. IF price rallies from this level, the current
62% retracement from Thursday’s move is 1.1071 and the highs of the week are 1.1144 for
potential resistance. IF price continues to sell off, 1.0844 is the fib target of Thurday’s current
high/low and 1.0800 has been strong support multiple times where price may bounce from again
if tested.
Review on 2nd of June
NEWS: AUD 12:30 AM est Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement
9:30 PM est GDP
EUR 5:00 AM est Unemployment Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
(all day) Total Vehicle Sales
EUR/USD rallied to make new monthly and yearly highs above the previous resistance as a
weak USD drove many of the major pairs on Monday. Price is testing a previous swing
point from late 2008 in the 1.4250-1.4300 level and may need some consolidation before
this level is penetrated. IF price does rally on Tuesday, 1.4286 is a fib target and weekly
pivot, then 1.4400-1.4420 is approx. the next possible resistance cluster. IF price reverses
and sells off, the next possible support are the fibs from last week’s low to this week’s high
at 1.4073, 1.4020 and 1.3967.
GBP/USD also had a big rally as price broke through previously strong resistance to also
make new yearly highs and is testing the resistance from a previous swing point from late
October of last year. The next possible resistance is 1.6616 and 1.6689 as fib targets
from the day’s high/low range. IF price sells back off to test the previous resistance now
as support, watch 1.6303 and 1.6220 for potential support zones.
USD/JPY trended up for the entire day as price moved 185% of its normal ATR (Average
True Range) and is testing the 20 and 200 day MA’s for possible resistance. IF price
continues to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high which may provide solid resistance the first
time tested unless the FXMM and FXPI are at their extremes. The next possible resistance
is 97.71 (fib target and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, the fib retracement levels for
Monday’s huge up move that may be support are currently 95.91, 95.63 and 95.35.
USD/CHF also sold off to make new monthly lows and is approaching the yearly lows,
then rallied back into the days range. Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s
and has sold off for most of the month but could be ready for a correction sometime
during the early part of the week as price is testing the previous yearly lows. IF price does
sell off to test these levels, watch for possible support at 1.0600 and 1.0560. These are
fib targets that are currently located in the previous swing low area then I was speaking of.
IF price reverses and rallies, the current fib retracements from last week’s high to Monday’s
current low are 1.0746, 1.0786 and 1.0826 that may provide resistance.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows as well and found support at the 1.0800 level
as price then rallied back up above Sunday’s high. Price is still extrememly weak but is
not near any other major swing low levels which may indicate that price will continue to
make new yearly lows at some point during the week. IF so, 1.0800 as Monday’s low
may be support and 1.0729 is the beginning of the next fib target cluster. IF price rallies,
the fib retracement cluster levels that may be resistance if tested are currently 1.1000,
1.1070 and 1.1137.
Review on 28th of May
NEWS: GBP 6:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales
USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims*
10:00 AM est New Home Sales
NZD 6:45 PM est Building Consents
EUR/USD had a slight rally to begin the trading session and found resistance at the highs of Tuesday, double topped, and sold off to make new weekly lows. This is likely indicating a reversal of the USD based pairs, atleast for the time being, as several of the pairs are at their
extremes or the tops or bottoms of their respective long term trend channels indicating the overbought or oversold conditions. IF the eur/usd continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.3813 and 1.3743 as the next 38/50% fib retracements from last week’s low to this week’s high. IF price rallies to test the highs of the week, 1.4051 is the current weekly high and 1.4177 is a fib target for potential resistance.
GBP/USD rallied up above resistance to make new monthly/yearly highs, again, and has sold off to test the previous resistance now as support. Price has been very strong but is also oversold and may need to sell off for the rest of the week. 1.5867 and 1.5800* are the next fib retracements from the most recent valid swing points from last week and may be support if tested on Thursday. IF price continues to rally and make new weekly highs, the next possible resistance is the highs from Wednesday at 1.6086 and the next fib target and weekly pivot at 1.6200.
USD/JPY managed to rally after finding a base for support at a previous swing low point from mid March. Price is likely to rally and retest previous support levels now as resistance. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 95.63 (62% retracement, monthly pivot) and 96.11 (long term fib retracement cluster.) If price continues with the downward momentum, 94.50 is the next 62% retracement from last week’s low to this week’s high and 93.86 IS last week’s low for the next possible support.
USD/CHF also created a base at the bottom of a long term trend channel and is attempting currently to rally and breakout from the consolidation at the bottom of the channel that has occured since the beginning of the week. IF price does breakout to the long side, the
next possible resistance is 1.0960 and 1.1037 (fib retracement levels from multiple longer term swings.) IF price sells off and retests the lows, 1.0813 is the currently low for the week where price has found support multiple times and 1.0717 is a fib target which may offer
support if tested on Thursday or Friday.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows just below the 1.1100 level and rallied to make new daily highs for the day. Price is way oversold and is difficult to determine trend direction but expect a major correction to the long side at some point this week or early next. If price does rally, 1.1287 is a 50% fib retracement and 1.1350 is near the current weekly high and fib retracement and may offer resistance. IF price continues with the strong sell off, 1.1100 was the lows of the day and 1.1000 is the next fib target and whole number for potential support.
Review on 27th of May
NEWS: GBP (all day) Nationwide HPI
CAD 8:30 AM est Corporate Profits
USD 10:00 AM est Existing Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Private Capital Expenditure q/q
EUR/USD broke through Monday’s range and sold off rapidly to a fib level then rallied hard back into the consolidation area and is currently testing the highs of the week for resistance for the highs of the day. IF price rallies up, 1.4050 begins a zone containing the current yearly highs and was also the highs of last week as price found resistance at this level and sold off. This level may provide resistance if tested on Wednesday. The next possible resistance is 1.4172 (fib target.) IF price sells off, 1.3871 is a longer term 38% retracement and the low
of Tuesday and 1.3816 (fib retracement cluster and weekly pivot) for your potential support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to test the current weekly highs, sold off to a fib retracement and again has rallied to retest the highs of the week where price currently resides. IF price breaks through this level, the next possible resistance are the fib targets at 1.6034 and 1.6111. IF price fails at this level and sells off, watch for possible support just below 1.5800 and 1.5740. These represent the fib retracement levels from the most recent valid swing and the low of the week, as well.
USD/JPY had a very narrow range and low volatility as price moved less then 50% of its normal daily ATR (Average True Range.) This usually precedes a breakout trending type day so take note for Wednesday or Thursday. Price is also at the bottom of a long range channel seen on a daily chart and may be ready for a correction to the long side after the huge sell off for most of the month of May. IF price does rally, the next possible resistance are 95.25 and 96.10. These levels represent fib retracements and clusters of other various forms of resistance. IF price again sells off, 94.37 is a 62% retracement and last week’s low of 93.86 may be support!
USD/CHF rallied to a fib retracement level and sold off to retest the lows of the week where price has currently found support and rallied back into the daily trading range. Price is very weak and is below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price breaks support you may wish to attempt to short the breakdown of the level. The next possible support will be 1.0743 and 1.0719 that you may use as profit taking levels or potential counter trend opportunities. IF price rallies, from the current weekly low of 1.0813, then watch for possible resistance at 1.0928 (weekly high) and 1.0962 (next 62% retracement and monthly pivot.)
USD/CAD had a strong rally into resistance from a previous swing point from last Friday and sold off rapidly just below last week’s low to make new yearly lows where price currently resides. IF price continues the sell off, the next possible support are the fib targets from 1.1075 and 1.1006. These may be significant support levels but use caution when the prevailing trend is at its extremes. Use the FXPI and FXMM for confirmation when taking countertrend trades. If price finds support and rallies from 1.1170 level, then the current fib retracement levels that may provide resistance are 1.1270 and 1.1322. IF a new lower daily low is made below 1.1170 then redraw your own fibs and disregard the possible resistance levels I just mentioned.
Daily review
EUR/USD rallied and broke above the current weekly highs and rallied to new 10 day highs and new monthly highs, and is rapidly approaching the current yearly highs from early January. After retracing and selling off to the 200 day MA in the beginning of the week, price found support and has rallied strongly ever since. IF price continues to rally on Thusday, the next possible resistance is the fib target and monthly pivot at 1.3924, then at (1.3982-1.4000) which could be strong potential resistance (fib cluster and strong whole number. IF price reverses from the rally and sells off, the next fib retracement levels for potential support are 1.3678 (fib cluster) and 1.3627 (weekly 50% fib retracement.)
GBP/USD did manage to rally up to new yearly highs, and is currently well over the 200 day MA as well. IF price continues to rally for the rest of the week the next possible light resistance is the fib target at 1.5921 and the next fib target/whole number/fib retracement from 1.6000-1.6030 for stronger potential resistance. If price reverses from the strong rally and sells off from the daily highs, the current fib retracement levels from Wednesday’s big rally for potential support are 1.5625 and 1.5586. The next stronger possible support level is (1.5534-1.5510) and may allow a chance to reenter the strong weekly uptrend.
USD/JPY sold off as the weak USD pushed price down the 2nd consecutive day and has currently double near the lows of the week and is testing for support. IF price finds support and rallies on Thursday, the next key fib retracement for possible resistance are 95.55 and the current weekly highs at 96.69. IF price breaks below and makes new weekly lows, 93.90-93.80 is a fib target cluster and weekly pivot and 93.41 is the next fib target for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off and trended down all day and made new monthly lows before spiking up, finding support and consolidating the rest of the day. Price is also at the bottom quartile of a long term trend channel seen on a daily chart. Price is very weak, however and may need to consolidate before selling off below this level for the rest of the week. IF price does sell off below 1.0980 level then the next possible support is 1.0906 (light support) and 1.0867 (stronger potential support zone.) IF price does rally before retesting the lows, the next potential resistance is 1.1079, 1.1114 and 1.1150. These are the weekly 38/50/62% retracements and may be resistance when 1st tested!
USD/CAD also had a very weak downtrending day and an ultra weak USD pushed price into new yearly lows! Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.1274 and 1.1221 as fib targets from Wednesday’s current high/low swings. USE caution taking countertrend trades when the trend is very strong and use your FXPI and FXMM to filter out strong trends. Price is also near the bottom of the long term trend channel from a daily chart and may find support. IF price does find support and rallies for the rest of the week, the next key fib levels for possible resistance are the weekly fib retracements at 1.1533, 1.1586 and 1.1640. IF price makes a NEW DAILY lower low, then redraw your fibs from the weekly highs and lows and use THESE levels for potential resistance points.
Review on 20th of May
NEWS: GBP 4:30AM est MPC Meeting Minutes
CAD 7:00 AM est Core CPI m/m
USD 10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 PM est FOMC Meeting Minutes *
EUR/USD extended from Monday’s rally and found resistance at the next fib target, weekly pivot and previous high peak from last week for the current highs of the day. If price continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.3722 for the highs of the week and close to the yearly highs, then at 1.3800 (fib projection target.) IF price sells off, 1.3516 is the 62% fib retracement for week and 1.3424 is the current
weekly low for the possible support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to new yearly highs and found resistance at the 1.5500 zone where price is consolidating. Price well over the 20/50 day MA’s and approaching the 200 day MA. If price continues to rally the next possible resistance for fib targets are currently located at 1.5600 (also very close to the 200 day MA!) and 1.5650. If price sell off, 1.5350 and 1.5291 are the 38/50% retracements from
last week’s low and this week’s high.
USD/JPY was a very low volatility day and after making a slight new weekly high sold off and consolidated on low volume for the rest of the day. Price may be ready to rally and retest the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s for resistance before continuing the downtrend. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 97.15 and 97.77 (the next 50/62% retracement levels) for potential resistance. If price does not make a new daily higher high on Tuesday night or Wednesday, then the current 62% retracement for the week is 95.38 and 94.55 is the current weekly low for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off and found strong support at the next strong 62% retracement and rallied then sold off below this level and is approaching previous swings from last week’s lows to test for support. Price is still below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price continues to sell off, 1.1000 is the next zone for possible support and is just above last week’s low for possible support. IF price rallies, 1.1187 is the current 62% retracement for the week and a monthly pivot, and 1.1251 is among the weelky highs for possible resistance!
USD/CAD sold off to continue with the downtrend from Monday, found support at the 1st buy zone and weekly pivot, then sold off again to find support at the next fib target just below this level for the current lows of the day. IF the sell off continues, watch for potential support at 1.1481 (last weekly low and fib target) and at the next fib target cluster beginning at 1.1450. IF price needs to correct itself and rallies from this level, the current weekly fib retracement levels for potential resistance are 1.1667 and 1.1700. These levels are also in the trade zones so if a new lower low in price is made, the trade zones should have the updated zones for possible resistance so
please take note!
Daily plan on 19th of May
NEWS: USD 8:30AM est Housing Starts
EUR/USD sold off to the 200 day MA on Sunday evening and rallied for the rest of the day to find resistance at the weekly pivot for the current highs of the day. If price continues to rally on Tuesday, the next potential resistance is 1.3608 (next major 68% fib retracement) and 1.3650 (next peak high and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, 1.3400 is a long term 38% retracement and 1.3300 is the next 50%
major fib for potential support for tomorrow.
GBP/USD rallied to find resistance and the highs at the weekly highs from last week which are also very close to the yearly highs. IF price rallies up through this level, the next possible resistance is 1.5460 (fib target) and 1.5500 (fib target and monthly pivot. IF price sells off, 1.5200 is the 62% retracement from Monday’s high and low swings points, and 1.5060 is the low from last week for your possible support levels for Tuesday.
USD/JPY rallied to the 38% fib retracement from the high and low of last two weeks for the high of the day as price rapidly sold off. The next 50/62% levels for this swing are 97.16 and 97.77 for the next possible resistance. IF price sells off, the current 62% retracement for Monday is 95.34 and the low from Sunday is 94.55 which may act as support if tested.
USD/CAD sold off and trended down the entire day approx. 200 pips with very little retracement until price reached the ultimate lows of the day. Be cautious taking countertrend setups when price is trending heavily like this. Use the FXPI and FXMM before taking countertrend trades. IF price rallies, the 50/62% fib retracements for Monday’s range are currently 1.1709 and 1.1733 and the highs
from Sunday and last week are 1.1800 area for your possible resistance levels. IF price sells off, the weekly pivot is near the previous swing low at 1.1554 and the lows for last week are 1.1479 for your potential support!
USD/CHF rallied to the next major 38% retracement late Friday and early Sunday and sold off causing price to trend down most of the day. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support begins at 1.1090* and last week’s lows of 1.1039. If price rallies to test the highs of the week at 1.1261 at the next 50% fib retracement of 1.1359, may be possible resistance.
Happy trading
Review on Monday
NEWS: EUR 5:00 AM est Buba president Weber speaks
CAD (All day) Bank Holiday
AUD 6:10 PM est RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
9:30 PM est Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
EUR/USD continued to reverse from the long term rally and sell off late last week after some consolidation and is still overbought so watch for that to likely continue atleast into the early part of this week. The next possible support is 1.3405 (long term 38% retracement) and 1.3362 (fib target from last week’s high/low swings.) If price again rallies, the next resistance begins near 1.3558- 1.3576 as multiple
pivots and key fib retracements are currently located.
GBP/USD remained in a sideways consolidating channel for the entire weak, but along with the EUR, price is looking bearish. If price does sell off, the next high probably potential support begins at 1.5000 and at 1.4874 (next major fib retracement level.) If price rallies to test the highs, 1.5350 is last week’s high and could also be high probable resistance the 1st time tested this week. The next potential resistance is in the 1.5500 area (multiple pivots and fib profit targets.)
USD/JPY trended down for all of last week as a very weak JPY forced price short and then consolidated on Friday as price closed near it’s lows. IF price does find support and rallies, the next resistance are the major fib retracement levels at 96.65, 97.24 and 97.84. If the downtrend continues, watch for potential support is currently 94.08 and 93.44 as the next fib target clusters.
USD/CAD rallied for the entire week as price is very oversold and is quickly retracing back to the 200 and 20 day averages which are very close to each other in the 1.1900 range which should be tested some time this week so take note. If price does begin to rally to this level also watch for possible resistance at 1.1864 (long term 38% retracement.) IF price sells off, the current fib retracements from last week’s range which may provide support are currently 1.1638 and 1.1600.
USD/CHF also rallied to close out the week on Friday afternoon and is closing in on the 20 day MA and the 200/50 MA’s. If price continues to rally, the next long term fib retracement levels are currently 1.1357 and 1.1447 for the next strong potential resistance. If price sells off, 1.1118 and 1.1084 are the current 50/62% fib retracement levels for your possible support. If price makes a new
daily higher high on Sunday night or Monday, redraw the levels from the next new higher high.
Review on 14th of May 2009
NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est PPI / Unemployment Claims*
NZD 6:45 PM est Retail Sales
EUR/USD had an inside, lover volatility day as price sold off from the weekly highs and found support at the current weekly low. Price is testing the longer term resistance from mid-late March and made need some more selling off before the momemtum of the long term uptrend
is going to carry price through this level. Price is likely to sell off to the 200 day MA before doing so, pontentially at some point this week. If price does sell off, the next fib retracements for potential support are 1.3540 and 1.3485. IF price again rallies, the current weekly highs
just above the 1.3700 level may be resistance again, then 1.3777 is the next fib target cluster for the next possible resistance level. Take note of unemployment claims which is likely to introduce high volume and volatility into the market and can be somewhat unpredictable.
GBP/USD also had an inside day as price failed to test the weekly highs and failed to make a lower low then Tuesday even though price sold off fairly heavily after the 5:30 AM est news was released. Price did find resistance for the weekly highs at a previous resistance level at
the beginning of the year and could need to also sell off, like the EUR/USD, before momentum pushes price into new yearly highs. IF price sells off, 1.5000 may be strong support, initially, as this is a fib cluster and whole number. 1.4935 is a fib target from Wednesday’s high/low
swing points.
USD/JPY continued with the current weekly bearish trend and trended down for most of the day as price found the current daily low just below the previous monthly low/monthly pivot which was initially support when tested before breaking through the level. IF price continues
to sell off the next possible support is 94.25-94.00 which contains multiple fib targets, then 93.37 being the next level below this. The CURRENT daily low is 95.15. IF price does NOT make a new lower daily low then watch for potential resistance at 96.90, 97.47 and
98.00. These are the major fib retracements from highs of last week and the current low of this week.
USD/CHF had a slight rally after finding support near the 1.1000 number for the current weekly lows. Price double topped at the current weekkly highs and may be preparing for a slight rally for the rest of the week as price may need a correction after the big sell off to the bottom of the long term trend channel on a daily chart and whole number. IF price does rally, the next potential resistance is 1.1150 and 1.1200 as the next fib retracements from last week’s high to this week’s current low. IF price resumes the long term sell off, watch for potential support at current weekly lows of around 1.1000-1.0967 and the next fib target of 1.0870.
USD/CAD reversed from the strong sell off from the last 3 weeks and found the current high of the day at the next major 38% fib level. IF price needs more of a correction from the strong sell off and rallies again for the rest of the week, the next possible resistance is 1.1865 (may be strong potential resistnace when tested as this level is level is a major retracement cluster as of right now.) Next possible resistnace cluster begins at 1.1950, which is also identified currently as a trade zone. IF price sells off, 1.1500 zone is just above the weekly lows and could be support again when tested.