Non forex
Review on Thursday 30th of April
NEWS: GBP 2:00 AM est Nationwide HPI
JPY (tentative) BOJ Press Conference
2:00 AM est BOJ Outlook Report
CAD 8:30 AM est GDP
USD 8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims
EUR/USD rallied up over the 50 day MA and found resistance at a long range trend line where
price quickly sold off back into the weekly range after testing and failing the trend line. The trend
is UP watch for price to possible sell off after the strong selling from just above the 1.3300 level.
If price does sell off, the next key fib retracements for the week’s high/low are 1.3200,
(1.3166-1.3152), and 1.3113. These are the major fib retracement levels, as well as, fib clusters
from other swings. IF price breaks through Wednesday’s high and rallies, you may attempt to buy
the breakout, but watch for possible resistance at the fib targets of 1.3423 and 1.3475.
GBP/USD rallied up above the 20 day MA and found resistance at the long term 62% retracement
just above the 1.4800 level then sold back off into the day’s range. IF price continues the bullish
trend and tests the highs of the day, the next potential resistance are the fib target clusters beginning
at 1.4928 and 1.4968. IF price reverses and sells off the current key weekly fib retracements for
potential support and a chance to reenter the uptrend are 1.4666 and 1.4630.
USD/JPY rallied heavily back to a previous trend line that was once used as strong support and is
now testing as resistance. The highs of the day are at the 50 day MA. If price rallies, the next
strong potential resistnace is the long term fib retracement of 98.54 and the next (fib target/weekly
pivot) at 98.85. IF price sells off, 96.79 and 96.51 are the weekly 50/62% retracements and
95.63 is the weekly/monthly low for possible support. The Bank Of Japan is having a press
conference, however the time of the conference is currently tentative so use caution.
USD/CHF sold off below last week’s lows and the 200 day MA but rallied quickly to close the
day’s price above this support zone at the time of publishing this letter. The trend, however, is
still down so use the possible light support at the fib target’s from the most recent swing including
Wednesday’s price range are currently 1.1243 and 1.1209. IF price rallies, the next fib retracement
clusters where price may bounce begin at 1.1448 and 1.1483.
USD/CAD sold off rapidly after the opening of the London trading session and found support for
the ultimate low of the day at the 1.2000 level which was also near the low of the month. IF price
breaks down below the 1.2000 level, you may attempt to sell the breakdown, however, be
cautious of a false breakout. IF price rallies, 1.2159 is the 62% retracement for the week and
1.2247 is the next major 50% fib retracement for potential resistance.
Review on Wensday 14th of April
NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est Core Retail Sales / PPI
10:30 AM est FOMC Member Evans Speaks
1:30 PM est Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
EUR/USD reversed from last weeks strong sell off and rallied to the 20 day MA and 62% retracement of last week’s sell off and found resistance for the ultimate high of the day. IF price sells off from this level, use the fib retracement zones beginning at the fib levels from last week’s low and this week’s high as your potential support. 1.3277, 1.3241 and 1.3205 are the beginning of the previously mentioned zones which may offer support. IF price continues the rally from Monday and rallies through resistnace of Monday’s high, then next potential resistnace are the fib target clusters of 1.3500* and 1.3582.* Both of these zones have multiple levels of resistance and may cause strong selling the 1st time they are tested.
GBP/USD also had a big rally above last week’s consolidation pattern and has currently found resistance at the monthly pivot for the highs of the day. Price action for Tuesday is still looking bullish, especially if price rallies above Monday’s high. The next possible resistnace begins at 1.4958 which is last week’s high and a fib target cluster. IF price sells off, 1.4780 was a previously strong resistance level and may act as support if tested on Tuesday and 1.4690 is a 62% retracement of last week’s low from Monday’s current high!
USD/JPY sold off to last months high which has now acted as support multiple times and was the ultimate low of the day for Monday. Difficult to determine the trend for the day on Tuesday. IF price rallies, watch for possible resistance at 100.73 then at the monthly pivot of 101.17 for light resistnace. If price sells off below the previouly mentioned support level of 99.85, the next support is 99.34 and 98.70 for strong possible support.
USD/CHF sold off over 300 pips to just above the 200 MA and long term trendline. IF price retraces watch for a possible entry to get back into the downtrend at 1.1420, 1.1455 and 1.1491 as the daily fib levels for Monday. IF price does continue to sell off, the next possible support will be 1.1243 as last week’s low and last month’s low of 1.1161.
USD/CAD sold off on light volume and found support at last month’s low of 1.2193 which is also a monthly pivot. Price is bearish and if this level is broken tomorrow to the short side, you may attempt to sell the breakout. The next possible light support is the fib target at 1.2112 and fib target cluster and weekly pivot of 1.2039.* IF price rallies, the 1.2300 zone has been strong resistance before and 1.2323 is the next longer term 50% level for possible resistnace.
Happy trading