Archive for August, 2009
Review on today’s trading
NEWS: GBP (25th-29th) Nationwide HPI
CHF 3:15 AM est Employment level
USD 10:00 AM est CB Consumer Confidence
EUR/USD had a low volatility inside ranging day as price failed to make a higher daily
high or lower daily low then Friday. If price breaks out from the consolidation on Tuesday,
the next possible support are the 38/50/62% retracement levels from last week’s high/low
which are currently 1.4250, 1.4210 and 1.4172. If price finds support at these levels and
rallied, watch for potential resistance at last week’s high of 1.4376 and the highs of the prior
week where price found resistance multiple times in the 1.4428- 1.4451 range.*
GBP/USD was contained in a sideways, inside channel for the majority of last week and
price sold off to find support at the bottom of this channel on Monday, just below the 50
day MA. IF price breaks from the channel and sells off, the next possible support is
1.6276 as the weekly lows from last week and 1.6220 which is a fib target and monthly
pivot where price could bounce. If price finds support at the bottom of the channel and
rallies, the top of the channel and high of last week is approx. 1.6624 and the next intra
weekly fib target for light possible resistance is 1.6700.
USD/JPY rallied to the resistance area mentioned in the trading letter yesterday where the
main MA’s that we use are currently clustered together along with the 38% retracement
of the prior two weeks which was the high of the day. This level, at 95.07 and the next
50% retracement of 95.59 will be the possible resistance levels for Tuesday. IF price
sells off, 94.05 is the current 62% retracement of last week’s low to this week’s high
for possible support and the low of last week at 93.43 is also a weekly pivot and may
offer support if tested this week.
USD/CAD has continued with the selling pressure of last week and trended down again
making new 10 day lows as price is fast approaching the current lows of the month for
support. If price continues to sell off, 1.0700 is an intra weekly fib target for light
potential support and 1.0640 is the approx. lows for August which may be support if
tested this week. If price rallies, 1.0877 and 1.0924 are the current 38/50% retracements
from last week’s high to this week’s current low for possible resistance. IF a NEW weekly
LOW is made, then these resistance fib levels will be changed.
USD/CHF had a inside, low volume, low volatility day and moved a small amount of its
daily ATR. Price is stuck at support and well below the 20/50 day MA’s. IF price
rallies, 1.0656 is a retracement cluster and weekly pivot and 1.0680 is the beginning of
the next fib retracement cluster for possible resistance. These levels are also identified
by the trade zones on your charts. IF price sells off, 1.0554 is the low of last week and
a monthly pivot and 1.0504 is a fib target for the next potential support levels for Tuesday.
Review on Monday
NEWS: EUR 5:00 AM est Industrial New Orders
CAD 8:30 AM est Core Retail Sales
NZD 11:00 PM est Inflation Expectations
EUR/USD had a big rally to open the session, retraced to 50% of the breakout then rallied
again to test the highs of the day. Currently Price is well above the 20 and 50 day MA’s but
may need to retrace to test support if the uptrend is to continue. IF price does sell off, 1.4250
is a fib retracement and weekly pivot and 1.4210 is the next long term 50% retracement for
possible support. IF momentum continues and takes price to test the highs, 1.4376 is the high
for last week and may again be resistance and 1.4441 is the next fib target from Friday’s
swing high/low.
GBP/USD rallied to double top at the previous weekly highs then sold off again, as price is
still contained between the 20 and 50 day MA’s as support and resistance. IF price rallies
to test the highs, 1.6624 is the high of last week and 1.6700 is the next fib target for potential
resistance for Monday. If price reverses and sells off, 1.6408 is the long term 62%
retracement and 1.6276 is the low of last week for high possible support for Monday as
well.
USD/JPY sold off on Friday to make new monthly lows then rallied hard in the afternoon
session and has since rallied early Sunday session to test the highs of Friday. IF price keeps
rallying 95.08 and 95.60 are the 38/50% retracements of the past several weeks where price
may find resistance. IF price sells off, 93.43 is the low of last week for possible support
if price tests this level on Monday or Tuesday.
USD/CAD also rallied heavily in the afternoon of the Friday session and is approaching the
potentially strong resistance where the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s are clustered. 95.08 and
95.60 are the next 38/50% retracements where price may find resistance. IF price sells off,
93.43 is the weekly low and weekly pivot for possible support and 92.65 is the next light
potential support point (fib target.)
USD/CHF sold off to major support for the lows of the week, where price is currently
testing again for support just above the monthly pivot. If price ultimately finds support here
and rallies, 1.0660 and 1.0681 are the next fib retracement levels from different weekly
and multi-weekly swings for possible resistance. IF price sells off, 1.0507 is a fib target
and 1.0477 is a fib target and weekly pivot for possible support as well.