Archive for July, 2009
Review on Wensday
NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est FOMC Member Dudley speaks
10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 PM est Beige Book
NZD 5:00 PM est Official Cash Rate
RBNZ Rate Statement
AUD 9:30 PM est Building Approvals
EUR/USD found resistance at the weekly highs and sold off rapidly to the long term 38% fib
retracement for the low of the day which were both trading zones. Price is over the 20/50
and 200 day MA’s but has met strong resistance levels as price has failed at this zone multiple
times this month. IF price rallies again, 1.4236 is the 62% retracement of Tuesday and 1.4291
is approx. last week’s high where price may be resistance on Wednesday. IF price sells off,
1.4123 and 1.4068 are the next long term fib retracement levels for potential support.
GBP/USD also rallied to strong resistance which has held since last May and sold off to double
bottom at the weekly lows from Sunday for the low of the day. Price is just above the 20 and
50 day MA which may act as support if tested this week. IF price rallies to retest the previously
mentioned resistance zone, watch for resistance from 1.6566-1.6586 (weekly pivot and last
week’s high) and at 1.6683 and 1.6743 which are fib projection targets from last week’s high/low
swing. If price sells off, 1.6354 is the next long term 38% fib retracement and 1.6311 is last
week’s low which may be support when tested.
USD/JPY sold off after finding strong resistance at the 200 day MA and sold off to just above
the 38% fib retracement from the lows of 2 weeks ago and this week’s high. If price sells off
again to test this mentioned level, 94.00 is the 38% level and 93.56 is the next 50% retracement
for possible support as well. IF price rallies on Wednesday, 95.29 is the weekly high and 96.10
is the next fib target cluster for possible resistance levels.
USD/CAD sold off again to barely make new lows for month as price is again testing the strong
support levels from the lows of late May. Price then quickly was bought and rallied for the rest
of the active trading session before selling back off showing indecision for the immediate price
direction for the rest of the week. IF price does fail at the support level just mentioned and rallies,
1.0930 and 1.0975 are the next longer term fib retracements which may be resistance if tested.
If price sells off again, 1.0669 and 1.0613 are the next fib targets from various intra-weekly
swings for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off briefly to double bottom near the weekly low then rallied heavily to make
new weekly highs just above last week’s high as price found resistance for the high of the day
at the 20 day MA. Price is stuck between strong support at lows from early June and resistance
from the 20 and 50 day MA’s resulting in the consolidating price action. IF price rallies, 1.0800
is approx the weekly high and 1.0818 is the next 62% fib retracement from 2 weeks ago high
to last week’s low for possible resistance. IF price sells off, 1.0634 is the weekly pivot and
begins the very strong potential support from the zone previously mentioned which may be
support and possible chance to get into a nice countertrend rally. IF this level is broken,
however, be aware that a very strong sell off is likely to potentially happen as stops are
triggered from people who have had long positions from the zone for the past several months.
Review on 21st
NEWS: CAD 9:00 AM est BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
AUD 9:30 PM est CPI
EUR/USD rallied up to make new monthly and 10 day highs and is approaching last
month’s high. The high of the day for Monday was a long range fib target and the next
possible resistance is the next fib target for this particular swing at 1.4317. The next
possible resistance is 1.4361. IF price sells off, 1.4133 is approx. the 62% retracement
for the week and 1.4089 is the next long term 38% retracement for potential support.
GBP/USD rallied up strongly after finding support at the 20 day MA and also made
new 10 day highs as price continued from last week’s rally. IF price keeps rallying up,
the next fib targets from Friday’s low to this week’s current high are 1.6655 and 1.6721.
IF price sells off, 1.6407 and 1.6374 are the 50/62% retracements from the previously
mentioned swing.
USD/JPY rallied to the 20 day MA and found resistance for the highs of the day then
sold off rapidly to make new daily/weekly lows. Price is still below the 20/50 and 200
day MA’s after rallying up to and correcting itself from the previous news related huge
sell off from weeks ago. Price is making lower lows in price at the time of publication.
IF price keeps selling off, 93.26 and 92.91 are the next major 50/62% retracements
for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.00 begins the next major possible resistance
zone.
USD/CHF had a steep sell off to open the trading session then consolidated for the
rest of the day. IF price continues to drop, as price appears to be bearish for the
early part of the week, the next possible support is 1.0597 and 1.0560. IF price
rallies, 1.0755 is the current 62% retracement from last Friday’s high to this week’s
current low and 1.0798 is the next major 50% retracement for possible resistance.
USD/CAD sold off below last week’s low and strong support to make new monthly
lows and found the low of the day at the fib target from last Wednesday’s move. IF
price keeps selling off, 1.0977 is the next fib target from the previously mentioned
swing and 1.0786 is last month’s low which may be strong potential support if tested
this week. IF price rallies, 1.1200 is the beginning of the next stronger possible
resistance cluster and 1.1267 is the next long term 38% retracement.
Review on 2nd of July
NEWS: EUR 7:45 AM est Minimum Bid Rate
USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change **
8:30 AM est Unemployment Rate
EUR/USD rallied up heavily after news was released at approx. noon est. pushing the
rally into new weekly highs through resistance. Price is still over the 20 and 50 day MA’s
and has been rallying for several weeks but a pullback may be due some point this week
because of being so overbought. IF price rallies again, watch for possible resistance at
1.4200 (currently weekly high) and at 1.4250 which begins a fib target cluster. IF price
sells off, 1.4056 and 1.4027 begin the next two fib retracement clusters for possible
support.
GBP/USD sold off to make new weekly lows, then found support at the next strong fib
38% retracemetn for the lows of the day. Price is still hovering over the 20 day MA.
IF price sells off and breaks below the 20 day MA, watch for a strong potential down
trending day. The next possible support is is the low of the week at 1.6382 amd the next
fib target of 1.6300. IF price rallies, watch for potential resistance at 1.6563 and 1.6606
which are the current weekly 50/62% retracements.
USD/JPY rallied to the top of the daily trend channel which also combined with the 20
and 50 day MA’s where price found resistance and sold off the rest of the day. Price
is likely to be bearish for the rest of the week because of the strong resistance but must
wait for further confirmation. IF price sells off, 96.00 is a fib retracement and 95.68
is the next longer term fib retracement for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.15 begins
the next resistance peaks from the past several weeks and is also a weekly pivot for
potential resistance.
USD/CHF sold off rapidly after the news release as price sold off to the 2nd buy zone
for the lows of the day and rallied back into the range. 1.0711 was the low of the day
on Wednesday and may again offer support if tested. The next possible strong support
is 1.0636 which beings a multiple support cluster and the low of last week. IF price rallies,
the current fib retracement levels that may offer resistance are 1.0800 and 1.0820.
Review on 1st of July 2009
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing PMI
USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment Change**
10:00 AM est ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Trade Balance
EUR/USD rallied to last weeks high where price double topped, then sold off to the key
1.4000 level for the current low of the day. If price continues to sell off on Wednesday,
1.4000 may again be light support but use caution as this will be the 3rd time testing this
zone this week. The next possible higher percentage potential support it 1.3950, long term
fib retracement level, bottom on trend channel and half-number.) IF price rallies, watch
for light resistance at the weekly highs again at 1.4138 and at 1.4168 which is the previous
monthly high.
GBP/USD rallied over the top of the sideways consolidation channel then sold off quickly
resulting in the false breakout. This is generally a bearish sign, but IF price rallies to test the
highs of the channel watch for possible resistance at 1.6544, 1.6582 and 1.6620 which are
the current daily fib retracement levels for Tuesday’s sell off. IF ANY OF THESE levels
change after this letter is released they will updated on your trade zones as they appear on
your charts at midnight EST so please take note! If price continues the sell off, the next
possible support are the fib targets 1.6348 and 1.6300.*
USD/JPY sold off late in the JPY session yesterday then quickly rallied to make new weekly
highs as price should close over the 200 day MA. Price is now between the 200 and 20/50
day MA’s and may consolidate before breakout from these support and resistance zones. If
price rallies, 96.57 is last weekly high and 96.96 is the next fib target cluster which may offer
resistance. IF price sells off, 95.77 is a fib retracement cluster and 95.60 is the next longer
term 62% retracement for potential support.
USD/CHF sold off to test the 20 day MA then rallied for the rest of the day and found
resistance the next longer term 38% retracement for the current high of the day. IF price
continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.0900 and 1.0927 which represent fib
retracement levels from the most recent major swing from last week’s high to this week’s
current low. IF price sells off, 1.0800 begins the lowest support cluster which was the low
of the day. IF tested on Wednesday, this may again be support with the next possible
support beginning at 1.0711 (fib target cluster.)
USD/CAD rallied up to last weeks high where price found resistance and consolidated for
the rest of the day where price currently resides. IF price rallies and breaks through this
level, the next possible resistance is 1.1713 and 1.1759 as the fib targets from the most recent
swing. IF price fails at the current highs and sells off, 1.1519 and 1.1488 are the next longer
term fib retracement zones which may be support if tested.
EUR/JPY rallied up to Monday’s and last month’s high where price again found resistance
for the highs of the day and sold off back into the range. Price should close between the 20
and 50 day MA’s. Price closed out the day into a consolidating wedge pattern at the time
of publishing and should breakout nicely. IF price rallies up, the next possible resistance is
136.26 (long term 62% retracement) and 136.94 is a fib target cluster which begins the next
possible resistance zone.
GBP/JPY rallied to a fib target and sold off quickly to near the bottom of the multiday trend
channel. 158.00 is the bottom of the trend channel and 38% fib retracement and 157.16 is
the next 50% fib retracement wher price may find support. IF price rallies, 160.23 and
161.20 are fib targets which are also near the top of the previously mentioned trend channel
which may be resistance if tested.