Archive for June, 2009
Review on Monday of 22nd
NEWS: EUR 4:00 AM est German Ifo Business Climate
EUR/USD rallied to the previously mentioned 1.4000 level for the highs of the week on Friday as price also found resistance at the 20 day MA and sold off back into the range. If price rallies on Monday, this level, 1.4000 may again provide resistance, as well as the next major 50% fib retracement at 1.4043. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is 1.3849 and just above the monthly pivot and could be potentially strong support. The next possible support is 1.3760 (last week’s low.)
GBP/USD rallied hard after finding support at the 20 day MA for multiple days and is currently approaching the monthly and yearly highs. IF price does continue to rally, last week’s high was 1.6621 and 1.6700 is a fib target which may also offer resistance. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is currently 1.6330 and 1.6210 is the next long term range 50% retracement for potential support.
USD/JPY rallied heavily on Thursday before selling off strongly on Friday and closing below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. Price is currently stuck in between a long term wedge consolidation pattern seen on a daily chart as price has bounced from the tops and bottoms of this range for the last several months. If price rallies on Monday, 97.05 and 97.42 are the current 50/62% retracements for last week’s high/low range for possible resistance. If price sells off, 95.63 is approx. last week’s low and 95.02 begins a fib target cluster for potential support.
USD/CAD consolidated for most of the week within a tight range as price attempted to break out of the range on Wednesday resulting in a false breakout and a sell off back into the range. Price is between the 20 and 50 day MA’s. 1.1450 is last week’s high and 1.1540 is a fib target for possible resistance on Monday. IF price sells off, watch for potential support at 1.1255 and 1.1196 (next major fib support levels.)
Review on today
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est PPI Input
CAD 7:00 AM est Employment Change
USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change *
Unemployment Rate *
EUR/USD sold off to make new weekly lows and found support at the 50% retracement level
from last week’s low to this week’s current high for the ultimate low of the day. Price has now
found strong resistance near the levels I discussed yesterday which are price level peaks from
late December. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support is the low of Thursday
at 1.4065 and 1.4000 (62% retracement.) IF price rallies, 1.4237 is the current weekly 62%
retracement for light possible resistance and 1.4338 is the current weekly high for stronger
possible resistance.
GBP/USD continued from Wednesday’s sell off and found support at the 62% retracement
of the last two week’s high/low for the current low of the day. IF the sell off continues, the next
possible support is 1.6000 and 1.5886* (strong fib cluster.) IF price rallies to retest the
current weekly range, the fib retracements which may offer resistance are 1.6306, 1.6373 and
1.6440.
USD/JPY has attempted to break from the long term consolidation pattern and rallied above
the weekly highs after the news was released, injecting volume into the markets. This may be
a false breakout as price has not conviningly rallied to new highs, so use caution. IF price does
continue to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high and 97.70 is a fib target for potential resistance levels.
IF price sells off, 96.00, 95.70 and 95.41 are the weekly fib retracements which may be support
if tested on Friday.
USD/CHF rallied up to make new weekly highs but quickly sold back off to consolidate within
the trading range of the week. Price has also met strong support and may consolidate more or
need to rally before breaking through to new lows. IF price does rally, the next possible
resistance is Thursday’s high near approx. 1.0770 then 1.0815 (next longer term 62% retracement.)
IF price sells off, 1.0600 has been strong support multiple times and may again be support if
tested on Friday and 1.0560 is a fib target and weekly pivot.
USD/CAD reversed from yesterday’s huge rally when CAD news was released and found the
ultimate lows of the day at the weekly 62% retracement. IF price rallies from this level, the current
62% retracement from Thursday’s move is 1.1071 and the highs of the week are 1.1144 for
potential resistance. IF price continues to sell off, 1.0844 is the fib target of Thurday’s current
high/low and 1.0800 has been strong support multiple times where price may bounce from again
if tested.
Review on 2nd of June
NEWS: AUD 12:30 AM est Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement
9:30 PM est GDP
EUR 5:00 AM est Unemployment Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
(all day) Total Vehicle Sales
EUR/USD rallied to make new monthly and yearly highs above the previous resistance as a
weak USD drove many of the major pairs on Monday. Price is testing a previous swing
point from late 2008 in the 1.4250-1.4300 level and may need some consolidation before
this level is penetrated. IF price does rally on Tuesday, 1.4286 is a fib target and weekly
pivot, then 1.4400-1.4420 is approx. the next possible resistance cluster. IF price reverses
and sells off, the next possible support are the fibs from last week’s low to this week’s high
at 1.4073, 1.4020 and 1.3967.
GBP/USD also had a big rally as price broke through previously strong resistance to also
make new yearly highs and is testing the resistance from a previous swing point from late
October of last year. The next possible resistance is 1.6616 and 1.6689 as fib targets
from the day’s high/low range. IF price sells back off to test the previous resistance now
as support, watch 1.6303 and 1.6220 for potential support zones.
USD/JPY trended up for the entire day as price moved 185% of its normal ATR (Average
True Range) and is testing the 20 and 200 day MA’s for possible resistance. IF price
continues to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high which may provide solid resistance the first
time tested unless the FXMM and FXPI are at their extremes. The next possible resistance
is 97.71 (fib target and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, the fib retracement levels for
Monday’s huge up move that may be support are currently 95.91, 95.63 and 95.35.
USD/CHF also sold off to make new monthly lows and is approaching the yearly lows,
then rallied back into the days range. Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s
and has sold off for most of the month but could be ready for a correction sometime
during the early part of the week as price is testing the previous yearly lows. IF price does
sell off to test these levels, watch for possible support at 1.0600 and 1.0560. These are
fib targets that are currently located in the previous swing low area then I was speaking of.
IF price reverses and rallies, the current fib retracements from last week’s high to Monday’s
current low are 1.0746, 1.0786 and 1.0826 that may provide resistance.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows as well and found support at the 1.0800 level
as price then rallied back up above Sunday’s high. Price is still extrememly weak but is
not near any other major swing low levels which may indicate that price will continue to
make new yearly lows at some point during the week. IF so, 1.0800 as Monday’s low
may be support and 1.0729 is the beginning of the next fib target cluster. IF price rallies,
the fib retracement cluster levels that may be resistance if tested are currently 1.1000,
1.1070 and 1.1137.
