Review on 28th of May
NEWS: GBP 6:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales
USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims*
10:00 AM est New Home Sales
NZD 6:45 PM est Building Consents
EUR/USD had a slight rally to begin the trading session and found resistance at the highs of Tuesday, double topped, and sold off to make new weekly lows. This is likely indicating a reversal of the USD based pairs, atleast for the time being, as several of the pairs are at their
extremes or the tops or bottoms of their respective long term trend channels indicating the overbought or oversold conditions. IF the eur/usd continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.3813 and 1.3743 as the next 38/50% fib retracements from last week’s low to this week’s high. IF price rallies to test the highs of the week, 1.4051 is the current weekly high and 1.4177 is a fib target for potential resistance.
GBP/USD rallied up above resistance to make new monthly/yearly highs, again, and has sold off to test the previous resistance now as support. Price has been very strong but is also oversold and may need to sell off for the rest of the week. 1.5867 and 1.5800* are the next fib retracements from the most recent valid swing points from last week and may be support if tested on Thursday. IF price continues to rally and make new weekly highs, the next possible resistance is the highs from Wednesday at 1.6086 and the next fib target and weekly pivot at 1.6200.
USD/JPY managed to rally after finding a base for support at a previous swing low point from mid March. Price is likely to rally and retest previous support levels now as resistance. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 95.63 (62% retracement, monthly pivot) and 96.11 (long term fib retracement cluster.) If price continues with the downward momentum, 94.50 is the next 62% retracement from last week’s low to this week’s high and 93.86 IS last week’s low for the next possible support.
USD/CHF also created a base at the bottom of a long term trend channel and is attempting currently to rally and breakout from the consolidation at the bottom of the channel that has occured since the beginning of the week. IF price does breakout to the long side, the
next possible resistance is 1.0960 and 1.1037 (fib retracement levels from multiple longer term swings.) IF price sells off and retests the lows, 1.0813 is the currently low for the week where price has found support multiple times and 1.0717 is a fib target which may offer
support if tested on Thursday or Friday.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows just below the 1.1100 level and rallied to make new daily highs for the day. Price is way oversold and is difficult to determine trend direction but expect a major correction to the long side at some point this week or early next. If price does rally, 1.1287 is a 50% fib retracement and 1.1350 is near the current weekly high and fib retracement and may offer resistance. IF price continues with the strong sell off, 1.1100 was the lows of the day and 1.1000 is the next fib target and whole number for potential support.
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