Review on 14th of May 2009
NEWS: USD 8:30 AM est PPI / Unemployment Claims*
NZD 6:45 PM est Retail Sales
EUR/USD had an inside, lover volatility day as price sold off from the weekly highs and found support at the current weekly low. Price is testing the longer term resistance from mid-late March and made need some more selling off before the momemtum of the long term uptrend
is going to carry price through this level. Price is likely to sell off to the 200 day MA before doing so, pontentially at some point this week. If price does sell off, the next fib retracements for potential support are 1.3540 and 1.3485. IF price again rallies, the current weekly highs
just above the 1.3700 level may be resistance again, then 1.3777 is the next fib target cluster for the next possible resistance level. Take note of unemployment claims which is likely to introduce high volume and volatility into the market and can be somewhat unpredictable.
GBP/USD also had an inside day as price failed to test the weekly highs and failed to make a lower low then Tuesday even though price sold off fairly heavily after the 5:30 AM est news was released. Price did find resistance for the weekly highs at a previous resistance level at
the beginning of the year and could need to also sell off, like the EUR/USD, before momentum pushes price into new yearly highs. IF price sells off, 1.5000 may be strong support, initially, as this is a fib cluster and whole number. 1.4935 is a fib target from Wednesday’s high/low
swing points.
USD/JPY continued with the current weekly bearish trend and trended down for most of the day as price found the current daily low just below the previous monthly low/monthly pivot which was initially support when tested before breaking through the level. IF price continues
to sell off the next possible support is 94.25-94.00 which contains multiple fib targets, then 93.37 being the next level below this. The CURRENT daily low is 95.15. IF price does NOT make a new lower daily low then watch for potential resistance at 96.90, 97.47 and
98.00. These are the major fib retracements from highs of last week and the current low of this week.
USD/CHF had a slight rally after finding support near the 1.1000 number for the current weekly lows. Price double topped at the current weekkly highs and may be preparing for a slight rally for the rest of the week as price may need a correction after the big sell off to the bottom of the long term trend channel on a daily chart and whole number. IF price does rally, the next potential resistance is 1.1150 and 1.1200 as the next fib retracements from last week’s high to this week’s current low. IF price resumes the long term sell off, watch for potential support at current weekly lows of around 1.1000-1.0967 and the next fib target of 1.0870.
USD/CAD reversed from the strong sell off from the last 3 weeks and found the current high of the day at the next major 38% fib level. IF price needs more of a correction from the strong sell off and rallies again for the rest of the week, the next possible resistance is 1.1865 (may be strong potential resistnace when tested as this level is level is a major retracement cluster as of right now.) Next possible resistnace cluster begins at 1.1950, which is also identified currently as a trade zone. IF price sells off, 1.1500 zone is just above the weekly lows and could be support again when tested.
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