Archive for March, 2009
Levels to focus on March 24
Use these levels below to find high propability trades, and make more pips
AUD/JPY Buy lightly 67.50 but 67.10 to 67.00 should be low
AUD/USD Buy .6950 to .6943
CAD/JPY Buy 78.00 to 77.78
USD/JPY Buy 96.00 to 95.77
GBP/JPY Buy 139.22 to 139.00
NZD/JPY Lightly buy 54.50 and aggressively 54.09 to 53.93
USD/CHF Buy breakout of 1.1300 and also buy 1.1125 to 1.1100
GBP/USD May be running out of steam. If it breaks 1.4600 and EURGBP trending down buy otherwise sell 1.4700 to 1.4730
NZD/USD Sell .5760
EUR/JPY Seems to be topping out, look to sell 133.14 to 133.50
USD/CAD Sell 1.2350 and 1.2450 and breakdown of 1.2200
EUR/USD Sell 1.3800
EUR/GBP Sell .9425 to .9450
Happy trading
Two trades on EUR/USD
Today i took 2 trades oth on euro against us dollar. I post this levels on Sunday eveninig here There were EUR/USD Aggressively sell breakdown of 1.3550 and 1.3700. The first was long on 1.3702 closed on 0 pips profit. I was supposed to see hard up move Eur/usd so i put immadietly SL on break event and it was hit.
Second trade was sell Eur/usd on trendline breakout on m15 chart. Chart below.
So i took it on first closed candle m15 ( chart is m30). It was almost 70 pips profit but i took only 30 pips gain. I expected fast move down, so i closed on +30 pips
Currencies to FOCUS on March 23
Due to my analysis I expect the NZD to be the strongest followed by USD, GBP, CAD and CHF and weakest pairs are JPY then EUR then AUD.
In all the systems I trade one thing I focus on is buying strongest pairs vs weakest and shorting weakest pairs vs strongest.
Here are the levels I’ll be looking at to buy/sell.
USD/JPY Lightly buy 95.23 and aggressively 94.90 to 94.50
NZD/JPY Buy 53.00 to 52.74 and aggressively 52.50
GBP/JPY Buy 137.12 to 137.00
CAD/JPY Buy 76.62 to 76.50
USD/CHF Buy 1.1200 to 1.1180
AUD/JPY Buy 65.00 and 64.50
USD/CAD Buy 1.2330 to 1.2300
EUR/JPY Buy 129.00
NZD/USD Buy breakout of .5625 or sell breakdown of .5550
GBP/USD Sell 1.4600 and breakdown of 1.4400
EUR/GBP Sell .9450 and breakdown of .9381
AUD/USD Aggressively sell breakdown of .6850 and sell .6950
EUR/USD Aggressively sell breakdown of 1.3550 and 1.3700
Happy trading 
Agressive short on USD/JPY
Today i took one short on usd/jpy unfortunetly 0 pips profit ;/
O pips profit with 30 pips SL
I put sell limit order on 95.60 with 95.90 SL, there was second fib profit and first retracemnt 61.8% of big downside move. See on chart below. I put this level on my today’s trading plan They missed my TP about few pips.
15m chart usd jpy
1h chart below to see big downside move
As You can see big move covers almost to the pip with second profit fib target.
Note!!
Why i moved my SL on breakeven?
1. Stron uptrend looks likle to contynue, so i wanna be safe. When i saw that they had missed my TP. I had only 20 pips, so put SL on 0 pips. See on 1minute chart.
Trading plan on 20 march 2009
Short on GBP/USD
My first trade on my blog So i took short on gbp/usd.
+50 pips with 30 pips SL
Resaons:
-On daily chart there’s nice downtrend. Trend is slowing down You can see it on MACD chart below, but still down
on 4h chart below we can see nice spike up, so i’m drawing fibs (from total bottom of this swing to highs) and trying to get in on retracement or extansion, threre was no pullback to minimum 50% retracemnet ( on 15m chart). As You can see there an exalent level two fibs targets are almost at the same price. GREAT!! Pleace to short
So i took exelent short at top and get 50 pips There ware strong uptrend whole day and no pullback for me to get in.
I’m trading on 15m chart but using also 4h and daily chart to see what is going on. Will explain soon my technics.
NOTE:
Safer is to put trade on pullback then on profits also safer is to have multi reason to put trade.
What exacly is ETF?
I had a lot of response from my email about the new ETF system
I am trading. One of the common response was, “What is an ETF?”
I figured I would forward this article from ETF Trend Trading:
Although there are some very important differences between them, it’s easy to understand ETFs if you think of them like mutual funds.
But unlike mutual funds, which try to beat indexes like the S&P 500 each year, ETFs try to mirror them.
For example, if the S&P 500 trades 10 percent higher, the ETF that mirrors it will also trade 10 percent higher. If the S&P 500 index trades 12 percent lower, the ETF that mirrors it will also decline by 12 percent.
But it wasn’t until recently that a new breed of ETFs really came of age. That’s because they don’t just mirror the performance of indexes like the S&P 500 anymore.
The new ETFs mirror the performance of entire industry groups, or sectors. Like the Software sector or the Housing sector or the Energy sector or a whole country.
Here’s an example of how ETFs mirror sectors, using the Oil Services sector as an example.
I’ve been bullish on the Oil Services sector recently.
But the Oil Services sector, like all sectors, is comprised of dozens of individual stocks. That means that to mimic the performance of the entire sector, you’d have to be rich enough equally buy each and every individual stock in that sector.
You’d also have to have the time and the experience to research each stock to pick the best ones with the greatest profit potential, and to avoid a disaster like Enron among them.
Instead of buying all the stocks in the energy sector, you can now just buy shares of the Proshares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF (SYM: DIG). Since the returns mirror the sector investors who bought DIG when my trading system turned bullish made easy profits of 17% in a few days with total risk of only 2%. Not all trades are that easy, butit does happen from time to time.
As you can see from above, having the ability to easily trade sectors is one of the biggest benefits of the new generation of Exchange Traded Funds. However, having access to this tool does not automatically make you a
successful investor.
The key to the 17% profits detailed above was knowing that the Oil Services Sector was about to make a big move. The
way I teach my student to know is to follow price. Price always includes all fundamental knowledge.
By the end of these emails, my goal is not only to make you comfortable with the concept behind ETFs, but also to
give you some of the tools my paid students use to be profitable trading ETFs.
My free videos share more information that will set you apart from every other individual investor in the market. They can be accessed from my homepage.
Here is small condensed list of the benefits of trading ETFs:
- Mirror indexes or sectors without having to buy hundreds of stocks.
- Lower expense ratios. While mutual funds can charge 1% to 3%, or more, ETFs are almost always in the 0.1% to 1% range. Over the long term, these cost differences can compound into a noticeable difference.
- Unlike mutual funds ETFs trade intraday like individual stocks. For instance, you can sell short, use a limit order, use a stop-loss order, buy on margin, and invest as much or as little money as you wish (there is no minimum investment
requirement).
- Diversification. This is one of the keys to long terminvesting success.
- Tax Benefits. Pay lower taxes than most mutual funds.
Who Issues ETFs?
Some of the major issuers include:
Barclays — iShares
State Street Global Investors — SPDRs (Spiders)
and streetTRACKS
Merril Lynch — HOLDRSs
Vanguard Group — Vanguard ETFs (formerly known as VIPERs)
ProFunds — Inverse and leveraged ProShares ETFs
Bank of New York — BLDRS (based on ADRs)
This is by no means all of them, but these major issuers offer many of the most popular and widely held exchange traded funds, and are a good place to start doing research.
How to start?
There’s only one way to be profitable trader. I will show how to do it, but DON’T miss any point of this.
- Find some good technic or sytem to trade with.
- Write trading plan… i’ll show You later how it should looks like
- Test Your technic on demo first (minimum three months), as close trading as You can
- While You trading on demo write Your jurnal!!
- Open small real account to start trading with Your trading plan
- While You open and close trades always note it in Your jurnal.
I will post more soon about 1,2,5 points.
Why test my system on demo acc first so it works?
Becouse not technic or system will be trading !! You will be trading. Two tarders using the same technic will have difrent profits or even one might have loss and a second will be still profitable maybe a few pips. System what You choose depend on You and has to fit to Your mind. So testing system on demo account save Your money for sure. You will also see difrents trading Your money or demo money. Second thing less important is that system will not be good all over the time. So check if it still work!!
What for should I write down notes from my trades?
Writing the jurnal, You will see Your bad habits and when You can start to fught with them.
Example of bad habits.
Some poeple close their orders too soon so, they cut they from higher wins. Other close too late on also close small.
Key to be profitable
What is the real key to be on rihgt side of your account amount?
It’s simple there’re only two real variables :
win/loss ratio It’s an avarage of Your win to Your loss should be minimum 1.5, so if Your avarage loss is 100$ You need at least 150$ of Your avarage win. Higher w/l ratio it’s better for You.
win % It’s simply how often You have right. So how many times You get Your profit.
Which of these You should take more care?
Of course win/loss ratio, why? becouse You don’t have any idea what will be Your win%. You simply don’t know if be right 40% or 45%.
So remember Your win sould be large and losses have to be small.