Review on 2nd of July
NEWS: EUR 7:45 AM est Minimum Bid Rate
USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change **
8:30 AM est Unemployment Rate
EUR/USD rallied up heavily after news was released at approx. noon est. pushing the
rally into new weekly highs through resistance. Price is still over the 20 and 50 day MA’s
and has been rallying for several weeks but a pullback may be due some point this week
because of being so overbought. IF price rallies again, watch for possible resistance at
1.4200 (currently weekly high) and at 1.4250 which begins a fib target cluster. IF price
sells off, 1.4056 and 1.4027 begin the next two fib retracement clusters for possible
support.
GBP/USD sold off to make new weekly lows, then found support at the next strong fib
38% retracemetn for the lows of the day. Price is still hovering over the 20 day MA.
IF price sells off and breaks below the 20 day MA, watch for a strong potential down
trending day. The next possible support is is the low of the week at 1.6382 amd the next
fib target of 1.6300. IF price rallies, watch for potential resistance at 1.6563 and 1.6606
which are the current weekly 50/62% retracements.
USD/JPY rallied to the top of the daily trend channel which also combined with the 20
and 50 day MA’s where price found resistance and sold off the rest of the day. Price
is likely to be bearish for the rest of the week because of the strong resistance but must
wait for further confirmation. IF price sells off, 96.00 is a fib retracement and 95.68
is the next longer term fib retracement for possible support. IF price rallies, 95.15 begins
the next resistance peaks from the past several weeks and is also a weekly pivot for
potential resistance.
USD/CHF sold off rapidly after the news release as price sold off to the 2nd buy zone
for the lows of the day and rallied back into the range. 1.0711 was the low of the day
on Wednesday and may again offer support if tested. The next possible strong support
is 1.0636 which beings a multiple support cluster and the low of last week. IF price rallies,
the current fib retracement levels that may offer resistance are 1.0800 and 1.0820.
Review on 1st of July 2009
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Manufacturing PMI
USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment Change**
10:00 AM est ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Trade Balance
EUR/USD rallied to last weeks high where price double topped, then sold off to the key
1.4000 level for the current low of the day. If price continues to sell off on Wednesday,
1.4000 may again be light support but use caution as this will be the 3rd time testing this
zone this week. The next possible higher percentage potential support it 1.3950, long term
fib retracement level, bottom on trend channel and half-number.) IF price rallies, watch
for light resistance at the weekly highs again at 1.4138 and at 1.4168 which is the previous
monthly high.
GBP/USD rallied over the top of the sideways consolidation channel then sold off quickly
resulting in the false breakout. This is generally a bearish sign, but IF price rallies to test the
highs of the channel watch for possible resistance at 1.6544, 1.6582 and 1.6620 which are
the current daily fib retracement levels for Tuesday’s sell off. IF ANY OF THESE levels
change after this letter is released they will updated on your trade zones as they appear on
your charts at midnight EST so please take note! If price continues the sell off, the next
possible support are the fib targets 1.6348 and 1.6300.*
USD/JPY sold off late in the JPY session yesterday then quickly rallied to make new weekly
highs as price should close over the 200 day MA. Price is now between the 200 and 20/50
day MA’s and may consolidate before breakout from these support and resistance zones. If
price rallies, 96.57 is last weekly high and 96.96 is the next fib target cluster which may offer
resistance. IF price sells off, 95.77 is a fib retracement cluster and 95.60 is the next longer
term 62% retracement for potential support.
USD/CHF sold off to test the 20 day MA then rallied for the rest of the day and found
resistance the next longer term 38% retracement for the current high of the day. IF price
continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.0900 and 1.0927 which represent fib
retracement levels from the most recent major swing from last week’s high to this week’s
current low. IF price sells off, 1.0800 begins the lowest support cluster which was the low
of the day. IF tested on Wednesday, this may again be support with the next possible
support beginning at 1.0711 (fib target cluster.)
USD/CAD rallied up to last weeks high where price found resistance and consolidated for
the rest of the day where price currently resides. IF price rallies and breaks through this
level, the next possible resistance is 1.1713 and 1.1759 as the fib targets from the most recent
swing. IF price fails at the current highs and sells off, 1.1519 and 1.1488 are the next longer
term fib retracement zones which may be support if tested.
EUR/JPY rallied up to Monday’s and last month’s high where price again found resistance
for the highs of the day and sold off back into the range. Price should close between the 20
and 50 day MA’s. Price closed out the day into a consolidating wedge pattern at the time
of publishing and should breakout nicely. IF price rallies up, the next possible resistance is
136.26 (long term 62% retracement) and 136.94 is a fib target cluster which begins the next
possible resistance zone.
GBP/JPY rallied to a fib target and sold off quickly to near the bottom of the multiday trend
channel. 158.00 is the bottom of the trend channel and 38% fib retracement and 157.16 is
the next 50% fib retracement wher price may find support. IF price rallies, 160.23 and
161.20 are fib targets which are also near the top of the previously mentioned trend channel
which may be resistance if tested.
Review on Monday of 22nd
NEWS: EUR 4:00 AM est German Ifo Business Climate
EUR/USD rallied to the previously mentioned 1.4000 level for the highs of the week on Friday as price also found resistance at the 20 day MA and sold off back into the range. If price rallies on Monday, this level, 1.4000 may again provide resistance, as well as the next major 50% fib retracement at 1.4043. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is 1.3849 and just above the monthly pivot and could be potentially strong support. The next possible support is 1.3760 (last week’s low.)
GBP/USD rallied hard after finding support at the 20 day MA for multiple days and is currently approaching the monthly and yearly highs. IF price does continue to rally, last week’s high was 1.6621 and 1.6700 is a fib target which may also offer resistance. IF price sells off, the 62% retracement from last week’s range is currently 1.6330 and 1.6210 is the next long term range 50% retracement for potential support.
USD/JPY rallied heavily on Thursday before selling off strongly on Friday and closing below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. Price is currently stuck in between a long term wedge consolidation pattern seen on a daily chart as price has bounced from the tops and bottoms of this range for the last several months. If price rallies on Monday, 97.05 and 97.42 are the current 50/62% retracements for last week’s high/low range for possible resistance. If price sells off, 95.63 is approx. last week’s low and 95.02 begins a fib target cluster for potential support.
USD/CAD consolidated for most of the week within a tight range as price attempted to break out of the range on Wednesday resulting in a false breakout and a sell off back into the range. Price is between the 20 and 50 day MA’s. 1.1450 is last week’s high and 1.1540 is a fib target for possible resistance on Monday. IF price sells off, watch for potential support at 1.1255 and 1.1196 (next major fib support levels.)
Review on today
NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est PPI Input
CAD 7:00 AM est Employment Change
USD 8:30 AM est Non-Farm Employment Change *
Unemployment Rate *
EUR/USD sold off to make new weekly lows and found support at the 50% retracement level
from last week’s low to this week’s current high for the ultimate low of the day. Price has now
found strong resistance near the levels I discussed yesterday which are price level peaks from
late December. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support is the low of Thursday
at 1.4065 and 1.4000 (62% retracement.) IF price rallies, 1.4237 is the current weekly 62%
retracement for light possible resistance and 1.4338 is the current weekly high for stronger
possible resistance.
GBP/USD continued from Wednesday’s sell off and found support at the 62% retracement
of the last two week’s high/low for the current low of the day. IF the sell off continues, the next
possible support is 1.6000 and 1.5886* (strong fib cluster.) IF price rallies to retest the
current weekly range, the fib retracements which may offer resistance are 1.6306, 1.6373 and
1.6440.
USD/JPY has attempted to break from the long term consolidation pattern and rallied above
the weekly highs after the news was released, injecting volume into the markets. This may be
a false breakout as price has not conviningly rallied to new highs, so use caution. IF price does
continue to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high and 97.70 is a fib target for potential resistance levels.
IF price sells off, 96.00, 95.70 and 95.41 are the weekly fib retracements which may be support
if tested on Friday.
USD/CHF rallied up to make new weekly highs but quickly sold back off to consolidate within
the trading range of the week. Price has also met strong support and may consolidate more or
need to rally before breaking through to new lows. IF price does rally, the next possible
resistance is Thursday’s high near approx. 1.0770 then 1.0815 (next longer term 62% retracement.)
IF price sells off, 1.0600 has been strong support multiple times and may again be support if
tested on Friday and 1.0560 is a fib target and weekly pivot.
USD/CAD reversed from yesterday’s huge rally when CAD news was released and found the
ultimate lows of the day at the weekly 62% retracement. IF price rallies from this level, the current
62% retracement from Thursday’s move is 1.1071 and the highs of the week are 1.1144 for
potential resistance. IF price continues to sell off, 1.0844 is the fib target of Thurday’s current
high/low and 1.0800 has been strong support multiple times where price may bounce from again
if tested.
Review on 2nd of June
NEWS: AUD 12:30 AM est Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement
9:30 PM est GDP
EUR 5:00 AM est Unemployment Rate
USD 10:00 AM est Pending Home Sales
(all day) Total Vehicle Sales
EUR/USD rallied to make new monthly and yearly highs above the previous resistance as a
weak USD drove many of the major pairs on Monday. Price is testing a previous swing
point from late 2008 in the 1.4250-1.4300 level and may need some consolidation before
this level is penetrated. IF price does rally on Tuesday, 1.4286 is a fib target and weekly
pivot, then 1.4400-1.4420 is approx. the next possible resistance cluster. IF price reverses
and sells off, the next possible support are the fibs from last week’s low to this week’s high
at 1.4073, 1.4020 and 1.3967.
GBP/USD also had a big rally as price broke through previously strong resistance to also
make new yearly highs and is testing the resistance from a previous swing point from late
October of last year. The next possible resistance is 1.6616 and 1.6689 as fib targets
from the day’s high/low range. IF price sells back off to test the previous resistance now
as support, watch 1.6303 and 1.6220 for potential support zones.
USD/JPY trended up for the entire day as price moved 185% of its normal ATR (Average
True Range) and is testing the 20 and 200 day MA’s for possible resistance. IF price
continues to rally, 97.24 is last week’s high which may provide solid resistance the first
time tested unless the FXMM and FXPI are at their extremes. The next possible resistance
is 97.71 (fib target and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, the fib retracement levels for
Monday’s huge up move that may be support are currently 95.91, 95.63 and 95.35.
USD/CHF also sold off to make new monthly lows and is approaching the yearly lows,
then rallied back into the days range. Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s
and has sold off for most of the month but could be ready for a correction sometime
during the early part of the week as price is testing the previous yearly lows. IF price does
sell off to test these levels, watch for possible support at 1.0600 and 1.0560. These are
fib targets that are currently located in the previous swing low area then I was speaking of.
IF price reverses and rallies, the current fib retracements from last week’s high to Monday’s
current low are 1.0746, 1.0786 and 1.0826 that may provide resistance.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows as well and found support at the 1.0800 level
as price then rallied back up above Sunday’s high. Price is still extrememly weak but is
not near any other major swing low levels which may indicate that price will continue to
make new yearly lows at some point during the week. IF so, 1.0800 as Monday’s low
may be support and 1.0729 is the beginning of the next fib target cluster. IF price rallies,
the fib retracement cluster levels that may be resistance if tested are currently 1.1000,
1.1070 and 1.1137.
Review on 28th of May
NEWS: GBP 6:00 AM est CBI Realized Sales
USD 8:30 AM est Core Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM est Unemployment Claims*
10:00 AM est New Home Sales
NZD 6:45 PM est Building Consents
EUR/USD had a slight rally to begin the trading session and found resistance at the highs of Tuesday, double topped, and sold off to make new weekly lows. This is likely indicating a reversal of the USD based pairs, atleast for the time being, as several of the pairs are at their
extremes or the tops or bottoms of their respective long term trend channels indicating the overbought or oversold conditions. IF the eur/usd continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.3813 and 1.3743 as the next 38/50% fib retracements from last week’s low to this week’s high. IF price rallies to test the highs of the week, 1.4051 is the current weekly high and 1.4177 is a fib target for potential resistance.
GBP/USD rallied up above resistance to make new monthly/yearly highs, again, and has sold off to test the previous resistance now as support. Price has been very strong but is also oversold and may need to sell off for the rest of the week. 1.5867 and 1.5800* are the next fib retracements from the most recent valid swing points from last week and may be support if tested on Thursday. IF price continues to rally and make new weekly highs, the next possible resistance is the highs from Wednesday at 1.6086 and the next fib target and weekly pivot at 1.6200.
USD/JPY managed to rally after finding a base for support at a previous swing low point from mid March. Price is likely to rally and retest previous support levels now as resistance. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 95.63 (62% retracement, monthly pivot) and 96.11 (long term fib retracement cluster.) If price continues with the downward momentum, 94.50 is the next 62% retracement from last week’s low to this week’s high and 93.86 IS last week’s low for the next possible support.
USD/CHF also created a base at the bottom of a long term trend channel and is attempting currently to rally and breakout from the consolidation at the bottom of the channel that has occured since the beginning of the week. IF price does breakout to the long side, the
next possible resistance is 1.0960 and 1.1037 (fib retracement levels from multiple longer term swings.) IF price sells off and retests the lows, 1.0813 is the currently low for the week where price has found support multiple times and 1.0717 is a fib target which may offer
support if tested on Thursday or Friday.
USD/CAD sold off to make new yearly lows just below the 1.1100 level and rallied to make new daily highs for the day. Price is way oversold and is difficult to determine trend direction but expect a major correction to the long side at some point this week or early next. If price does rally, 1.1287 is a 50% fib retracement and 1.1350 is near the current weekly high and fib retracement and may offer resistance. IF price continues with the strong sell off, 1.1100 was the lows of the day and 1.1000 is the next fib target and whole number for potential support.
Review on 27th of May
NEWS: GBP (all day) Nationwide HPI
CAD 8:30 AM est Corporate Profits
USD 10:00 AM est Existing Home Sales
AUD 9:30 PM est Private Capital Expenditure q/q
EUR/USD broke through Monday’s range and sold off rapidly to a fib level then rallied hard back into the consolidation area and is currently testing the highs of the week for resistance for the highs of the day. IF price rallies up, 1.4050 begins a zone containing the current yearly highs and was also the highs of last week as price found resistance at this level and sold off. This level may provide resistance if tested on Wednesday. The next possible resistance is 1.4172 (fib target.) IF price sells off, 1.3871 is a longer term 38% retracement and the low
of Tuesday and 1.3816 (fib retracement cluster and weekly pivot) for your potential support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to test the current weekly highs, sold off to a fib retracement and again has rallied to retest the highs of the week where price currently resides. IF price breaks through this level, the next possible resistance are the fib targets at 1.6034 and 1.6111. IF price fails at this level and sells off, watch for possible support just below 1.5800 and 1.5740. These represent the fib retracement levels from the most recent valid swing and the low of the week, as well.
USD/JPY had a very narrow range and low volatility as price moved less then 50% of its normal daily ATR (Average True Range.) This usually precedes a breakout trending type day so take note for Wednesday or Thursday. Price is also at the bottom of a long range channel seen on a daily chart and may be ready for a correction to the long side after the huge sell off for most of the month of May. IF price does rally, the next possible resistance are 95.25 and 96.10. These levels represent fib retracements and clusters of other various forms of resistance. IF price again sells off, 94.37 is a 62% retracement and last week’s low of 93.86 may be support!
USD/CHF rallied to a fib retracement level and sold off to retest the lows of the week where price has currently found support and rallied back into the daily trading range. Price is very weak and is below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price breaks support you may wish to attempt to short the breakdown of the level. The next possible support will be 1.0743 and 1.0719 that you may use as profit taking levels or potential counter trend opportunities. IF price rallies, from the current weekly low of 1.0813, then watch for possible resistance at 1.0928 (weekly high) and 1.0962 (next 62% retracement and monthly pivot.)
USD/CAD had a strong rally into resistance from a previous swing point from last Friday and sold off rapidly just below last week’s low to make new yearly lows where price currently resides. IF price continues the sell off, the next possible support are the fib targets from 1.1075 and 1.1006. These may be significant support levels but use caution when the prevailing trend is at its extremes. Use the FXPI and FXMM for confirmation when taking countertrend trades. If price finds support and rallies from 1.1170 level, then the current fib retracement levels that may provide resistance are 1.1270 and 1.1322. IF a new lower daily low is made below 1.1170 then redraw your own fibs and disregard the possible resistance levels I just mentioned.
Daily review
EUR/USD rallied and broke above the current weekly highs and rallied to new 10 day highs and new monthly highs, and is rapidly approaching the current yearly highs from early January. After retracing and selling off to the 200 day MA in the beginning of the week, price found support and has rallied strongly ever since. IF price continues to rally on Thusday, the next possible resistance is the fib target and monthly pivot at 1.3924, then at (1.3982-1.4000) which could be strong potential resistance (fib cluster and strong whole number. IF price reverses from the rally and sells off, the next fib retracement levels for potential support are 1.3678 (fib cluster) and 1.3627 (weekly 50% fib retracement.)
GBP/USD did manage to rally up to new yearly highs, and is currently well over the 200 day MA as well. IF price continues to rally for the rest of the week the next possible light resistance is the fib target at 1.5921 and the next fib target/whole number/fib retracement from 1.6000-1.6030 for stronger potential resistance. If price reverses from the strong rally and sells off from the daily highs, the current fib retracement levels from Wednesday’s big rally for potential support are 1.5625 and 1.5586. The next stronger possible support level is (1.5534-1.5510) and may allow a chance to reenter the strong weekly uptrend.
USD/JPY sold off as the weak USD pushed price down the 2nd consecutive day and has currently double near the lows of the week and is testing for support. IF price finds support and rallies on Thursday, the next key fib retracement for possible resistance are 95.55 and the current weekly highs at 96.69. IF price breaks below and makes new weekly lows, 93.90-93.80 is a fib target cluster and weekly pivot and 93.41 is the next fib target for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off and trended down all day and made new monthly lows before spiking up, finding support and consolidating the rest of the day. Price is also at the bottom quartile of a long term trend channel seen on a daily chart. Price is very weak, however and may need to consolidate before selling off below this level for the rest of the week. IF price does sell off below 1.0980 level then the next possible support is 1.0906 (light support) and 1.0867 (stronger potential support zone.) IF price does rally before retesting the lows, the next potential resistance is 1.1079, 1.1114 and 1.1150. These are the weekly 38/50/62% retracements and may be resistance when 1st tested!
USD/CAD also had a very weak downtrending day and an ultra weak USD pushed price into new yearly lows! Price is well below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support is 1.1274 and 1.1221 as fib targets from Wednesday’s current high/low swings. USE caution taking countertrend trades when the trend is very strong and use your FXPI and FXMM to filter out strong trends. Price is also near the bottom of the long term trend channel from a daily chart and may find support. IF price does find support and rallies for the rest of the week, the next key fib levels for possible resistance are the weekly fib retracements at 1.1533, 1.1586 and 1.1640. IF price makes a NEW DAILY lower low, then redraw your fibs from the weekly highs and lows and use THESE levels for potential resistance points.
Review on 20th of May
NEWS: GBP 4:30AM est MPC Meeting Minutes
CAD 7:00 AM est Core CPI m/m
USD 10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 PM est FOMC Meeting Minutes *
EUR/USD extended from Monday’s rally and found resistance at the next fib target, weekly pivot and previous high peak from last week for the current highs of the day. If price continues to rally, the next possible resistance is 1.3722 for the highs of the week and close to the yearly highs, then at 1.3800 (fib projection target.) IF price sells off, 1.3516 is the 62% fib retracement for week and 1.3424 is the current
weekly low for the possible support levels for Wednesday.
GBP/USD rallied to new yearly highs and found resistance at the 1.5500 zone where price is consolidating. Price well over the 20/50 day MA’s and approaching the 200 day MA. If price continues to rally the next possible resistance for fib targets are currently located at 1.5600 (also very close to the 200 day MA!) and 1.5650. If price sell off, 1.5350 and 1.5291 are the 38/50% retracements from
last week’s low and this week’s high.
USD/JPY was a very low volatility day and after making a slight new weekly high sold off and consolidated on low volume for the rest of the day. Price may be ready to rally and retest the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s for resistance before continuing the downtrend. If price does rally, the next possible resistance is 97.15 and 97.77 (the next 50/62% retracement levels) for potential resistance. If price does not make a new daily higher high on Tuesday night or Wednesday, then the current 62% retracement for the week is 95.38 and 94.55 is the current weekly low for possible support.
USD/CHF sold off and found strong support at the next strong 62% retracement and rallied then sold off below this level and is approaching previous swings from last week’s lows to test for support. Price is still below the 20/50 and 200 day MA’s. IF price continues to sell off, 1.1000 is the next zone for possible support and is just above last week’s low for possible support. IF price rallies, 1.1187 is the current 62% retracement for the week and a monthly pivot, and 1.1251 is among the weelky highs for possible resistance!
USD/CAD sold off to continue with the downtrend from Monday, found support at the 1st buy zone and weekly pivot, then sold off again to find support at the next fib target just below this level for the current lows of the day. IF the sell off continues, watch for potential support at 1.1481 (last weekly low and fib target) and at the next fib target cluster beginning at 1.1450. IF price needs to correct itself and rallies from this level, the current weekly fib retracement levels for potential resistance are 1.1667 and 1.1700. These levels are also in the trade zones so if a new lower low in price is made, the trade zones should have the updated zones for possible resistance so
please take note!
Daily plan on 19th of May
NEWS: USD 8:30AM est Housing Starts
EUR/USD sold off to the 200 day MA on Sunday evening and rallied for the rest of the day to find resistance at the weekly pivot for the current highs of the day. If price continues to rally on Tuesday, the next potential resistance is 1.3608 (next major 68% fib retracement) and 1.3650 (next peak high and weekly pivot.) IF price sells off, 1.3400 is a long term 38% retracement and 1.3300 is the next 50%
major fib for potential support for tomorrow.
GBP/USD rallied to find resistance and the highs at the weekly highs from last week which are also very close to the yearly highs. IF price rallies up through this level, the next possible resistance is 1.5460 (fib target) and 1.5500 (fib target and monthly pivot. IF price sells off, 1.5200 is the 62% retracement from Monday’s high and low swings points, and 1.5060 is the low from last week for your possible support levels for Tuesday.
USD/JPY rallied to the 38% fib retracement from the high and low of last two weeks for the high of the day as price rapidly sold off. The next 50/62% levels for this swing are 97.16 and 97.77 for the next possible resistance. IF price sells off, the current 62% retracement for Monday is 95.34 and the low from Sunday is 94.55 which may act as support if tested.
USD/CAD sold off and trended down the entire day approx. 200 pips with very little retracement until price reached the ultimate lows of the day. Be cautious taking countertrend setups when price is trending heavily like this. Use the FXPI and FXMM before taking countertrend trades. IF price rallies, the 50/62% fib retracements for Monday’s range are currently 1.1709 and 1.1733 and the highs
from Sunday and last week are 1.1800 area for your possible resistance levels. IF price sells off, the weekly pivot is near the previous swing low at 1.1554 and the lows for last week are 1.1479 for your potential support!
USD/CHF rallied to the next major 38% retracement late Friday and early Sunday and sold off causing price to trend down most of the day. IF price continues to sell off, the next possible support begins at 1.1090* and last week’s lows of 1.1039. If price rallies to test the highs of the week at 1.1261 at the next 50% fib retracement of 1.1359, may be possible resistance.
Happy trading